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Properties of design-based estimation under stratified spatial sampling with application to canopy coverage estimation

Lucio Barabesilabel=e1]barabesi@unisi.it [    Sara Franceschilabel=e2]franceschi2@unisi.it [    Marzia Marchesellilabel=e3]marcheselli@unisi.it [ University of Siena Economics and Statistics Department
University of Siena
Piazza San Francesco 17
53100, Siena
Italy

E-mail: e2
E-mail: e3
(2012; 11 2010; 9 2011)
Abstract

The estimation of the total of an attribute defined over a continuous planar domain is required in many applied settings, such as the estimation of canopy coverage in the Monterano Nature Reserve in Italy. If the design-based approach is considered, the scheme for the placement of the sample sites over the domain is fundamental in order to implement the survey. In real situations, a commonly adopted scheme is based on partitioning the domain into suitable strata, in such a way that a single sample site is uniformly placed (i.e., selected with uniform probability density) in each stratum and sample sites are independently located. Under mild conditions on the function representing the target attribute, it is shown that this scheme gives rise to an unbiased spatial total estimator which is “superefficient” with respect to the estimator based on the uniform placement of independent sample sites over the domain. In addition, the large-sample normality of the estimator is proven and variance estimation issues are discussed.

Design-based total estimation,
spatial sampling,
stratification,
doi:
10.1214/11-AOAS509
keywords:
.
volume: 6issue: 1

, and

1 Introduction

Applied scientists frequently deal with attributes defined on continuous spatial domains. In this framework, if the design-based approach is assumed, the target attribute may be expressed as a fixed bounded function yy taking values on the study region AA (a suitable subset of the plane). In the simplest case, y(u)y(u) may represent the value of the attribute at uAu\in A. As an example, in an environmental survey, y(u)y(u) could be the air-borne pollutant level at the sample site uu on a landscape. In a more structured setting, y(u)y(u) may also describe the “attribute density” arising from the selected spatial sampling design [this topic is extensively considered and explained in Chapter 10 of Gregoire and Valentine (2008)]. As an example, by supposing a fixed-radius circular plot sampling in a forest survey, y(u)y(u) could represent the number of trees lying in the plot centered at the sample site uu [up to a known proportionality constant; see Gregoire and Valentine (2008), pages 328–332]. In this case, under the design-based approach, the population universe is constituted by a continuum (ideally by the noncountable set of sample sites on AA) and the inference is actually carried out by assuming the so-called “continuous-population” paradigm. This approach has been extensively considered in recent years on the basis of the seminal papers by de Gruijter and ter Braak (1990), Cordy (1993) and Brus and de Gruijter (1997).

In the described framework, the estimation goal is usually focused on the spatial total, that is,

T=Ay(u)duT=\int_{A}y(u)\,\mathrm{d}u (1)

[see, e.g., Stevens (1997) and Chapter 10 of Gregoire and Valentine (2008)]. Indeed, as emphasized by Stevens (1997), the integral representation in (1) embraces a general family of population parameters, such as means, proportions or distribution functions. In order to estimate TT, the key problem of the design-based approach is the selection of an appropriate sampling strategy. As usual, it is assumed that the sampling strategy includes the joint selection of a suitable estimator and the corresponding scheme for the placement of the nn sample sites on the study region AA. Since an integral representation for TT holds, it is quite evident that the estimation problem may be rephrased in terms of the Monte Carlo integration theory. Interestingly, known Monte Carlo integration strategies are equivalent to the sampling strategies which are commonly adopted in environmental and ecological studies [Barabesi (2003, 2007), Gregoire and Valentine (2008), page 327]. Similar Monte Carlo integration approaches to parameter estimation occur in very different research areas, such as in stereology [see, e.g., the monograph by Baddeley and Jensen (2005)] or in computer graphics [see, e.g., Agarwal et al. (2003)].

The basic reference sampling scheme for selecting the sample sites is the Uniform Random Sampling (URS), which constitutes the continuous-population analog to simple random sampling from a finite population [Cordy (1993)]. Under URS, the nn sample sites are independently and uniformly selected on AA [Figure 1(a)]. Despite its simplicity, URS may be not suitable in practice since it may produce an uneven coverage of the study region and the corresponding unbiased estimator of TT displays a variance of order n1n^{-1}, that is, the variance decreases to 0 at the rate n1n^{-1} as nn\rightarrow\infty. In any case, URS is often considered a helpful benchmark to compare the performance of more refined schemes.

Refer to caption
Figure 1: Placement of n=25n=25 sample sites over a study region AA according to the URS scheme (a), the TSS scheme (b), the SGS scheme (c) and the SS scheme based on equal-size strata obtained by means of the Brus, Spätjens and de Gruijter (1999) algorithm (d). For the TSS and SGS schemes, the set RR is chosen as a rectangle and the tessellation is based on squares, while nn represents the mean number of sample sites in AA.

In order to overcome the drawbacks involved with URS, a sampling scheme frequently adopted in environmental studies is the so-called Tessellation Stratified Sampling (TSS) [see, e.g., Stevens (1997) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2002), page 63]. The TSS scheme is initially implemented by superimposing a suitable set RR onto the study region in such a way that ARA\subseteq R and by introducing the analytical extension yey_{e} of yy on RR. Formally, the analytical extension is defined as ye(u)=y(u)y_{e}(u)=y(u) if uAu\in A and ye(u)=0y_{e}(u)=0 if uRAu\in R\setminus A. Obviously, in this setting (1) may be conveniently rewritten as T=Rye(u)duT=\int_{R}y_{e}(u)\,\mathrm{d}u. Subsequently, a regular tessellation of RR is carried out and one sample site is independently and uniformly selected in each tessellation element [Figure 1(b)]. The theoretical properties of the TSS scheme have been explained in detail [Barabesi and Marcheselli (2003, 2005a, 2005b, 2008)]. The scheme gives rise to an unbiased estimator for TT with variance of order nγn^{-\gamma}, where γ(1,2]\gamma\in(1,2]. Hence, the estimator under TSS is “superefficient” since its variance decreases to 0 faster than the variance of the estimator under URS as nn\rightarrow\infty. The parameter γ\gamma depends on the degree of regularity of the analytical extension yey_{e}: for instance, it turns out that γ=2\gamma=2 for smooth functions, but it can occur that γ=3/2\gamma=3/2 even for noncontinuous and rather irregular functions [Barabesi and Marcheselli (2003, 2005a, 2008)]. Hence, the variance of the estimator for TT decreases to 0 faster as yey_{e} becomes more regular. In addition, consistent variance estimation is available if yey_{e} is a differentiable function on RR [Barabesi and Marcheselli (2003, 2008)]. In order to avoid the difficulties involved in the variance estimation, Cordy and Thompson (1995) and Stevens (1997) suggest modifying the TSS scheme by randomly shifting the tessellation. The randomized TSS scheme does not involve extra-sampling effort and allows for unbiased variance estimation without any restriction on the function yey_{e} [Stevens (1997)], even if the consistency of the variance estimator has not been proved. Barabesi and Franceschi (2011) show that the TSS scheme and its randomized modification produce estimators for TT with identical variance convergence rates.

A further frequently-considered scheme is Systematic Grid Sampling(SGS), which constitutes a systematic version of the TSS scheme [see, e.g., Valentine, Affleck and Gregoire (2009) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2002), page 70]. The SGS scheme provides the continuous-population analog to systematic sampling from a finite population as considered by Madow and Madow (1944) [see also D’Orazio (2003), as to systematic sampling of a spatial finite population]. Similarly to TSS, the SGS scheme requires a regular tessellation of RR and the extension of the function yy on RR. However, under SGS, a sample site is uniformly generated in the reference tessellation element and it is systematically repeated in the other tessellation elements [see Figure 1(c)]. The SGS scheme is commonly adopted in stereology and gives rise to an unbiased “superefficient” estimator for TT, under certain smoothness conditions on yey_{e} [Cruz-Orive (1993), Baddeley and Jensen (2005), page 159]. However, the variance of the estimator tends to be extremely elevated when the periodicity in the function yey_{e} is “in phase” with the tessellation elements [Baddeley and Jensen (2005), Chapter 13].

Even if the TSS and SGS schemes allow for an even coverage of the study region and give rise to unbiased “superefficient” estimation for TT, these schemes suffer due to two main technical drawbacks which are related to the analytical extension of yy on RR. Indeed, the sample sites are actually placed on RR (not on AA) and, hence, the number of sample sites on AA is a random variable, unless AA is exactly tessellated. Obviously, the tessellation may be selected in such a way that the mean number of sample sites on AA equals the prefixed sample size nn [as an example, this procedure is adopted for Figure 1(b) and (c)]. However, the task is generally undesirable for field scientists, who usually require reproducible designs. Moreover, even if the function yy is regular on AA, the function yey_{e} is likely to be not continuous on the boundary of AA (and hence on RR), unless yy is null on this boundary. As previously explained, the lack of regularity considerably reduces the efficiency of the estimators for TT.

An alternative way to face the whole setting may be based on stratification methods involving the “one-per-stratum” placement of the sample sites. More precisely, under the “one-per-stratum” Stratified Sampling (SS), the study region AA is partitioned into nn suitable strata and one sample site is independently and uniformly selected in each stratum [Figure 1(d)]. The scheme constitutes the continuous-population counterpart to the classic “one-per-stratum” stratified sampling in the finite-population setting [see, e.g., Cochran (1946)]. Moreover, the SS scheme generalizes the TSS scheme when AA coincides with RR and the tessellation is noncongruent. The scheme is commonly adopted for environmental and agricultural surveys [see, e.g., Walvoort, Brus and de Gruiter (2010) and the references therein].

In this paper, it is proven that the SS scheme produces an unbiased “superefficient” estimator for TT, which shares the variance properties of the estimator under the TSS scheme. However, in contrast with the TSS and SGS schemes, when the SS scheme is adopted the nn sample sites are exactly placed on AA and no analytical extension of yy is introduced. Moreover, in real surveys spatial stratification is often demanded in practice, owing to geographical or administrative convenience and tessellation-based methods would not be applicable. In addition, there exist ad hoc algorithms for partitioning the study region into strata (eventually of the same size) with suitable geometrical and statistical properties [Brus, Spätjens and de Gruijter (1999), Walvoort, Brus and de Gruiter (2010)]. Finally, even if schemes with more than a single sample site per stratum may be considered, it is apparent that the benefits arising from the full force of the stratification are achieved by adopting the “one-per-stratum” allocation. In any case, the “two-per-stratum” scheme will be briefly considered since it produces unbiased and consistent variance estimation.

Even if the achieved results may be applied to a broad range of different data sets collected on a continuous spatial domain, the motivating practical setting of the paper originates from an experiment dealing with canopy coverage estimation in the Monterano Nature Reserve. Owing to the complex boundary mosaic of this forest, the estimation approach based on forest polygon delineation and area mensuration in the GIS environment may produce omission and commission errors (which tend to be systematic) in the image interpretation. In order to overcome these shortcomings, a survey procedure based on line-intercept sampling which just involves the measurement of the intersections of linear transects with forest patches is considered. As to the Monterano Nature Reserve, forest researchers collected data by placing transect midpoints according to the SS scheme with equal-size strata by means of the Brus, Spätjens and de Gruijter (1999). Hence, the results of this paper may be suitably applied in order to provide point and interval estimation of canopy coverage.

2 Spatial total estimation

As pointed out in the Introduction, the benchmark for comparing different schemes is the URS and, hence, spatial total estimation under this scheme is briefly described. If U1,U2,,UnU_{1},U_{2},\ldots,U_{n} are nn i.i.d. random variables representing the sample-site locations, in such a way that each UiU_{i} is uniformly distributed on AA, the usual unbiased estimator for TT under URS [see, e.g., Cordy (1993)] is

T~n=a(A)ni=1ny(Ui),\widetilde{T}_{n}=\frac{a(A)}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}y(U_{i}), (2)

where a()a(\cdot) denotes the area of a set in 2\mathbb{R}^{2} (technically, aa represents the Lebesgue measure in 2\mathbb{R}^{2}). The variance of the estimator in (2) is given by

\operatornameVar[T~n]=1n(a(A)ST2),\operatorname{Var}[\widetilde{T}_{n}]=\frac{1}{n}\bigl{(}a(A)S-T^{2}\bigr{)},

where S=Ay(u)2duS=\int_{A}y(u)^{2}\,\mathrm{d}u, and, hence, it turns out that \operatornameVar[T~n]=O(n1)\operatorname{Var}[\widetilde{T}_{n}]=O(n^{-1}). As usual, if {an}\{a_{n}\} and {bn}\{b_{n}\} represent two positive sequences, an=O(bn)a_{n}=O(b_{n}) means that the ratio an/bna_{n}/b_{n} is bounded for all nn.

Under the SS scheme, the study region AA is partitioned in nn strata A1,A2,,AnA_{1},\allowbreak A_{2},\ldots,A_{n}, in such a way that each stratum is connected and compact (in a topological sense), and one sample-site location is independently and uniformly selected in each stratum. Therefore, let us suppose that the sample-site locations are represented by the random variables V1,V2,,VnV_{1},V_{2},\ldots,V_{n}. According to the continuous Horvitz–Thompson Theorem [Cordy (1993)], an unbiased estimator for (1) under SS is

T^n=i=1na(Ai)y(Vi)\widehat{T}_{n}=\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})y(V_{i}) (3)

with variance

σn2=\operatornameVar[T^n]=i=1na(Ai)2\operatornameVar[y(Vi)]=i=1na(Ai)Sii=1nTi2,\sigma_{n}^{2}=\operatorname{Var}[\widehat{T}_{n}]=\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})^{2}\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{i})]=\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})S_{i}-\sum_{i=1}^{n}T_{i}^{2},

where Ti=Aiy(u)duT_{i}=\int_{A_{i}}y(u)\,\mathrm{d}u and Si=Aiy(u)2duS_{i}=\int_{A_{i}}y(u)^{2}\,\mathrm{d}u.

In order to assess the variance properties of the estimator in (3), let us assume that yy is a Hölder function on AA, that is, a function satisfying the condition

|y(u)y(v)|Huvα,|y(u)-y(v)|\leq H\|u-v\|^{\alpha},

where H<H<\infty, α(0,1]\alpha\in(0,1] and u,vAu,v\in A, while \|\cdot\| denotes the usual norm in 2\mathbb{R}^{2}, that is, uv\|u-v\| denotes the distance between the points uu and vv. Obviously, yy reduces to a Lipschitz function for the special case α=1\alpha=1. The family of Hölder functions is very large [for more details, see, e.g., Evans (2010), page 254]. Indeed, it is at once apparent that Hölder functions are continuous. In addition, from the above definition, it also follows that the family of Hölder functions contains the family of Lipschitz functions, which in turn contains the family of continuously differentiable functions. Informally speaking, the Hölder condition quantifies the local variation of the function yy, in such a way that the index α\alpha may be interpreted as the corresponding “degree of local continuity.” Hence, the family of Hölder functions encompasses “smooth” functions, as well as functions displaying a very irregular behavior. As a matter of fact, there exist Hölder functions which are continuous, but nowhere differentiable.

By assuming that

\operatornamediam(B)=supu,vBuv\operatorname{diam}(B)={\sup_{u,v\in B}}\|u-v\|

represents the diameter of a given set BB, that is, the largest distance between two points in BB, let

dn=maxi=1,2,,n\operatornamediam(Ai)d_{n}=\max_{i=1,2,\ldots,n}\operatorname{diam}(A_{i})

be the maximum diameter of the AiA_{i}’s. Hence, let us consider the condition

dn2bn1,d_{n}^{2}\leq bn^{-1}, (4)

where b>0b>0 is a bounded constant. Since

a(Ai)\operatornamediam(Ai)2dn2,i=1,2,,n,a(A_{i})\leq\operatorname{diam}(A_{i})^{2}\leq d^{2}_{n},\qquad i=1,2,\ldots,n,

condition (4) implies that

a(Ai)bn1,i=1,2,,n.a(A_{i})\leq bn^{-1},\qquad i=1,2,\ldots,n.

In addition, let us also consider the condition

a(Ai)cn1,i=1,2,,n,a(A_{i})\geq cn^{-1},\qquad i=1,2,\ldots,n, (5)

where c>0c>0 is a bounded constant. It should be remarked that condition (4) simply requires that the stratification be performed by assuming quite “homogeneous” strata, that is, avoiding strata having “stretched” shapes and in such a way that no “large” strata are admitted as nn\rightarrow\infty. In addition, condition (5) actually ensures that too “small” strata are in turn avoided as nn\rightarrow\infty. These requirements are likely to hold for practical choices of A1,A2,,AnA_{1},A_{2},\ldots,A_{n}. Obviously, condition (5) is always satisfied with equal-size strata, that is, when a(Ai)=a(A)/na(A_{i})=a(A)/n for i=1,2,,ni=1,2,\ldots,n.

On the basis of Result 1 in the Appendix, by assuming that yy is a Hölder function and that condition (4) holds, it turns out that

σn2=O(n1α).\sigma_{n}^{2}=O(n^{-1-\alpha}).

Hence, the SS scheme may lead to a noticeable estimation improvement with respect to the basic URS scheme. The best variance order n2n^{-2} is achieved when yy is a Lipschitz function. In any case, the SS scheme produces more efficient estimation with respect to URS for each α\alpha value as nn\rightarrow\infty. The gain may be remarkable since in many real surveys α\alpha is likely to be about one—for example, as to the canopy coverage estimation considered in Section 4; see the discussion after the formula in (11).

The achieved variance properties may be extended to a larger class of functions. More precisely, let yy be a piecewise Hölder function on AA, that is, there exists a finite partition of AA in such a way that yy is a Hölder function on each partition element and the partition boundary is rectifiable, that is, in practical terms the boundary is “smooth.” This setting is of real interest, since yy often belongs to this function family when yy represents the “attribute density” as defined in the Introduction. Thus, by assuming that yy is a piecewise Hölder function and that condition (4) holds, on the basis of Result 2 in the Appendix, it turns out that

σn2=O(nmin(1+α,3/2)).\sigma_{n}^{2}=O\bigl{(}n^{-\min(1+\alpha,3/2)}\bigr{)}.

Hence, even if the gain is lessened owing to the discontinuity of the function yy, the performance of the SS scheme is in turn considerable. In this case, the best variance order n3/2n^{-3/2} is achieved when yy is a piecewise Hölder function with α1/2\alpha\geq 1/2. In turn, the SS scheme is preferable with respect to the URS scheme for each α\alpha.

As to the large-sample normality of the estimator in (3), on the basis of Result 3 in the Appendix, by assuming that yy is a Hölder function and that conditions in (4) and in (5) hold, it follows that

T^nTσnN(0,1)\frac{\widehat{T}_{n}-T}{\sigma_{n}}\stackrel{{\scriptstyle\mathcal{L}}}{{\longrightarrow}}N(0,1)

as nn\rightarrow\infty. This convergence result holds even if yy is a piecewise Hölder function (see Remark 2 in the Appendix). These findings on the variance properties and the large-sample normality of the estimator in (3) are in complete agreement with the results obtained by Barabesi and Marcheselli (2003, 2005a, 2008) and Barabesi and Franceschi (2011) under TSS. Indeed, the TSS scheme may be considered a special case of the SS scheme when AA coincides with RR and the strata correspond to the elements of the tessellation.

It should be finally emphasized that for each nn the variance of the estimator under URS is greater than or equal to the variance of the estimator under SS when the strata are of the same size, that is, it holds that

\operatornameVar[T~n]\operatornameVar[T^n].\operatorname{Var}[\widetilde{T}_{n}]\geq\operatorname{Var}[\widehat{T}_{n}].

Indeed, in this case the previous inequality is verified since T=i=1nTiT=\sum_{i=1}^{n}T_{i} and S=i=1nSiS=\sum_{i=1}^{n}S_{i}, while the inequality

i=1nTi21n(i=1nTi)2\sum_{i=1}^{n}T_{i}^{2}\geq\frac{1}{n}\Biggl{(}\sum_{i=1}^{n}T_{i}\Biggr{)}^{2}

obviously holds.

3 Variance estimation

The estimation of σn2\sigma_{n}^{2} is not a trivial task, since a single observation per stratum is available and the strata generally do not constitute a regular tessellation, that is, the strata display different sizes and shapes. In such a setting, estimators relying on contrast-based techniques—such as the proposals by Barabesi and Marcheselli (2003, 2008) under TSS or the proposal by Stevens and Olsen (2003) under randomized TSS—seem quite difficult to implement. However, a simple estimator may be obtained by treating the sample as if it were obtained under the URS scheme. A similar procedure is suggested by Stevens and Olsen (2003) under the randomized TSS scheme. Hence, a naïve estimator for σn2\sigma_{n}^{2} is given by

σ^n2=nn1i=1n(a(Ai)y(Vi)T^nn)2.\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}=\frac{n}{n-1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\biggl{(}a(A_{i})y(V_{i})-\frac{\widehat{T}_{n}}{n}\biggr{)}^{2}. (6)

Since

E[σ^n2]=σn2+B[σ^n2],\mathrm{E}[\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]=\sigma_{n}^{2}+\mathrm{B}[\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}],

where

B[σ^n2]=nn1i=1n(TiTn)2\mathrm{B}[\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]=\frac{n}{n-1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\biggl{(}T_{i}-\frac{T}{n}\biggr{)}^{2}

(Result 4 in the Appendix), the estimator in (6) is positively biased. Moreover, if yy is a Hölder function and condition (4) holds, it follows that

B[σ^n2]=O(n1)\mathrm{B}[\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]=O(n^{-1})

(Result 4 in the Appendix). Hence, even if B[σ^n2][\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}] vanishes for large nn, it might be of a larger order than that of σn2\sigma_{n}^{2}. Moreover, if condition (5) holds, on the basis of Remark 1 in the Appendix, it promptly turns out that

B[σ^n2]σn2=O(n).\frac{\mathrm{B}[\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]}{\sigma_{n}^{2}}=O(n).

In any case, the behavior of this type of estimator seems quite stable in practice as emphasized by Stevens and Olsen (2003), even if its use may lead to a marked overestimation of σn2\sigma_{n}^{2}.

For equal-size strata, an alternative estimator displaying more appealing features may be proposed. The suggested estimator is given by

σ~n2=a(A)22n2(y(V1)2+i=1n1(y(Vi)y(Vi+1))2+y(Vn)2).\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}=\frac{a(A)^{2}}{2n^{2}}\Biggl{(}y(V_{1})^{2}+\sum_{i=1}^{n-1}\bigl{(}y(V_{i})-y(V_{i+1})\bigr{)}^{2}+y(V_{n})^{2}\Biggr{)}. (7)

Since

E[σ~n2]=σn2+B[σ~n2],\mathrm{E}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]=\sigma_{n}^{2}+\mathrm{B}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}],

where

B[σ~n2]=12(T12+i=1n1(TiTi+1)2+Tn2)\mathrm{B}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]=\frac{1}{2}\Biggl{(}T_{1}^{2}+\sum_{i=1}^{n-1}(T_{i}-T_{i+1})^{2}+T_{n}^{2}\Biggr{)}

(Result 5 in the Appendix), the estimator in (7) is positively biased. By assuming that

Dn=maxi=1,2,,n1supuAi,vAi+1uv,D_{n}={\max_{i=1,2,\ldots,n-1}\sup_{u\in A_{i},v\in A_{i+1}}}\|u-v\|,

let us consider the condition

Dn2kn1D_{n}^{2}\leq kn^{-1} (8)

with k>0k>0 a suitable bounded constant. Condition (8) actually requires that the stratification be performed by indexing the strata in such a way that AiA_{i} and Ai+1A_{i+1} not be “too far” with respect to each other. In practical situations, AiA_{i} and Ai+1A_{i+1} may be generally chosen as “neighbors,” that is, in such a way that they share part of their boundary. For example, in the case study contained in Section 4, the partition elements are equally-sized strata which are indexed in such a way that the iith and the (i+1)(i+1)th strata have a side in common (see Figure 2). If yy is a Hölder function and conditions (4) and (8) are satisfied, it follows that

B[σ~n2]=O(n1α)\mathrm{B}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]=O(n^{-1-\alpha})

and

lim supn|σ~n2E[σ~n2]σn2|=0\limsup_{n}\biggl{|}\frac{\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}-\mathrm{E}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]}{\sigma_{n}^{2}}\biggr{|}=0

(Result 5 in the Appendix). Hence, the bias order of the estimator in (7) is reduced with respect to the estimator in (6) and B[σ~n2][\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}] is of the same order as that of σn2\sigma_{n}^{2}. Moreover, if condition (5) holds, and on the basis of Remark 1 in the Appendix, it follows that

B[σ~n2]σn2=O(n1α).\frac{\mathrm{B}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]}{\sigma_{n}^{2}}=O(n^{1-\alpha}).

Hence, when yy is a Lipschitz function, it turns out that

0B[σ~n2]σn2m,0\leq\frac{\mathrm{B}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]}{\sigma_{n}^{2}}\leq m,

where m>0m>0 is a suitable bounded constant, while

1lim infnσ~n2σn2lim supnσ~n2σn21+m1\leq\liminf_{n}\frac{\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}}{\sigma_{n}^{2}}\leq\limsup_{n}\frac{\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}}{\sigma_{n}^{2}}\leq 1+m

(Result 5 in the Appendix), that is, the estimator in (7) is large-sample conservative.

Refer to caption
Figure 2: The Monterano Nature Reserve and the corresponding partition in n=50n=50 strata according to the SS scheme based on equal-size strata obtained by means of the Brus, Spätjens and de Gruijter (1999) algorithm.

Finally, unbiased and consistent variance estimation is achieved if two sample sites are placed in each stratum, that is, if the “two-per-stratum” SS scheme is actually adopted. In this case, let us assume that nn is even and that a partition of the study region into n/2n/2 strata is carried out. Obviously, nn is now required to be even for comparison purposes with respect to the “one-per-stratum” SS scheme. Moreover, let V1,jV_{1,j} and V2,jV_{2,j} represent the two sample sites uniformly and independently selected onto the jjth stratum (j=1,2,,n/2j=1,2,\ldots,n/2). An unbiased estimator for TT is given by

T^2,n=12j=1n/2a(Aj)(y(V1,j)+y(V2,j)),\widehat{T}_{2,n}=\frac{1}{2}\sum_{j=1}^{n/2}a(A_{j})\bigl{(}y(V_{1,j})+y(V_{2,j})\bigr{)}, (9)

while its variance is

σ2,n2=\operatornameVar[T^2,n]=12j=1n/2a(Aj)2\operatornameVar[y(V1,j)]=σn/222.\sigma_{2,n}^{2}=\operatorname{Var}[\widehat{T}_{2,n}]=\frac{1}{2}\sum_{j=1}^{n/2}a(A_{j})^{2}\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{1,j})]=\frac{\sigma_{n/2}^{2}}{2}.

Hence, an unbiased and consistent estimator for σ2,n2\sigma_{2,n}^{2} is

σ^2,n2=14j=1n/2a(Aj)2(y(V1,j)y(V2,j))2.\widehat{\sigma}_{2,n}^{2}=\frac{1}{4}\sum_{j=1}^{n/2}a(A_{j})^{2}\bigl{(}y(V_{1,j})-y(V_{2,j})\bigr{)}^{2}. (10)

Moreover, by considering Result 1 in the Appendix, when condition (4) holds it turns out that

σ2,n2=O(n1α)\sigma_{2,n}^{2}=O(n^{-1-\alpha})

if yy is a Hölder function on AA, while

σ2,n2=O(nmin(1+α,3/2)),\sigma_{2,n}^{2}=O\bigl{(}n^{-\min(1+\alpha,3/2)}\bigr{)},

if yy is a piecewise Hölder function on AA. However, even if the “two-per-stratum” SS scheme provides in turn an unbiased “superefficient” estimator for TT, it is at once apparent that an efficiency loss occurs in using a stratification based on n/2n/2 strata rather than nn strata. In addition, if the n/2n/2 strata are split in such a way that each stratum is partitioned into two substrata of equal sizes and T^n\widehat{T}_{n} is computed on the basis of this stratification, it is promptly shown that \operatornameVar[T^2,n]\operatornameVar[T^n]\operatorname{Var}[\widehat{T}_{2,n}]\geq\operatorname{Var}[\widehat{T}_{n}] on the basis of the discussion at the end of Section 2.

4 An application to canopy coverage estimation

In order to illustrate an application of the SS scheme in an environmental survey, the estimation of the canopy coverage in the Monterano Nature Reserve has been considered. The Monterano Nature Reserve (which constitutes the study region AA in this case) is located in the central part of Italy (Lazio region) and its geographical boundary is depicted in Figure 2. The area of the Monterano Nature Reserve is equal to a(A)=1,045a(A)=1\mbox{,}045 ha.

If CAC\subset A represents the region inside AA covered by vegetation, canopy coverage is simply defined as the area of CC, that is, in this case T=a(C)T=a(C). Canopy coverage constitutes a central indicator in forestry, as emphasized by Bonham (1989). In order to estimate this quantity, replicated line-intercept sampling is commonly adopted [Barabesi (2007), Barabesi and Marcheselli (2008)]. More precisely, the replicated line-intercept sampling protocol is carried out by selecting nn sample sites on AA and by considering nn linear transects of fixed length LL with the same orientation, in such a way that the transect midpoints are centered on each sample site. According to Barabesi and Marcheselli (2008), the canopy coverage TT may be expressed as the integral of the “attribute density,” that is,

T=a(C)=1LAl(Ct(u))du,T=a(C)=\frac{1}{L}\int_{A}l\bigl{(}C\cap t(u)\bigr{)}\,\mathrm{d}u,

where t(u)t(u) represents the set of points in a transect with midpoint centered at the sample site uu, while l()l(\cdot) denotes the length of a set in \mathbb{R} (technically, ll represents the Lebesgue measure in \mathbb{R}). In this case, it follows that

y(u)=1Ll(Ct(u))y(u)=\frac{1}{L}l\bigl{(}C\cap t(u)\bigr{)}

is the length of the intersection of t(u)t(u) with CC, up to a known constant. Hence, if the SS scheme with equal-size strata is adopted, the canopy coverage estimator reduces to

T^n=a(A)Lni=1nl(Ct(Vi)),\widehat{T}_{n}=\frac{a(A)}{Ln}\sum_{i=1}^{n}l\bigl{(}C\cap t(V_{i})\bigr{)}, (11)

that is, the estimator in (11) actually represents the total sum of the intersection lengths between CC and the nn transects, up to a known constant. Barabesi and Marcheselli (2008) remark that if the boundary of CC is rectifiable, yy is a Hölder function. Hence, if condition (4) holds, it turns out that \operatornameVar[T^n]=O(n1α)\operatorname{Var}[\widehat{T}_{n}]=O(n^{-1-\alpha}). In particular, if CC is given by the union of circles or ellipses, it may be proven that \operatornameVar[T^n]=O(n2+ε)\operatorname{Var}[\widehat{T}_{n}]=O(n^{-2+\varepsilon}) where ε>0\varepsilon>0. Moreover, if CC is given by the union of polygons, it may be proven that \operatornameVar[T^n]=O(n2)\operatorname{Var}[\widehat{T}_{n}]=O(n^{-2}). Hence, in real settings, the estimator in (11) may be very efficient.

Even if the canopy coverage could be estimated by means of polygon delineation on the basis of visual interpretation of remotely sensed imagery, the procedure may typically produce errors and omissions [see, e.g., Corona, Chirici and Travaglini (2004)]. So, in order to avoid the interpretation drawbacks in the estimation of forest features such as forest ecotone or canopy coverage, Corona, Chirici and Travaglini (2004) suggest adopting replicated line-intercept sampling. Hence, for estimating canopy coverage in the Monterano Nature Reserve, the replicated line-intercept sampling protocol has been implemented by assuming the described procedure with n=50n=50 transects with fixed direction and length L=200L=200 m [these choices are consistent with the study by Corona, Chirici and Travaglini (2004)]. The transect midpoints (displayed in Figure 2) have been placed by adopting the SS scheme with equal-size strata obtained by using the Brus, Spätjens and de Gruijter (1999) algorithm. In this case, the estimator in (11) has given rise to the estimate 660660 ha for the canopy coverage. Hence, 63.1663.16% of the Monterano Nature Reserve is covered by vegetation. In addition, variance estimation has been performed on the basis of (7) by adopting a sequential indexing of strata with a common side (see Figure 2). Accordingly, the standard deviation estimate is 5858 ha and a conservative confidence interval for canopy coverage at the approximate 9595% confidence level is (647 ha,674 ha)(647\mbox{ ha},674\mbox{ ha}). Thus, a conservative confidence interval at the same level for the percent coverage is given by (61.87%,64.46%)(61.87\%,64.46\%).

5 Concluding remarks

Under the design-based approach, the target attribute of many surveys can be conceptualized as a suitable fixed function yy defined on a given planar domain. This approach is usually described as the continuous-population paradigm and it is especially suitable in environmental and ecological frameworks [see, e.g., Williams and Eriksson (2002) and Gregoire and Valentine (2008), page 2]. Indeed, in such spatial contexts, it is not often possible to achieve an area frame in order to apply the usual finite-population sampling theory. Regrettably, practitioners frequently force the continuous-population setting into the finite-population setting, owing to the lack of results or to the misunderstanding of the continuous-population paradigm.

The continuous-population paradigm requires implementation of an effective probability sampling design to estimate the target parameter, usually the total of the study attribute given by the integral of the function yy. Hence, a key decision is the choice of the sampling scheme for the placement of sample sites. Schemes based on tessellation and stratification are widely used in natural resource assessment and for environmental monitoring, since evenly-spread sample sites over the study region often simplify collection of field data and estimation efficiency is usually increased. However, as emphasized by Walvoort, Brus and de Gruiter (2010), schemes based on tessellation methods may involve several drawbacks and, hence, stratification schemes may often be preferable.

In the present paper it is shown that the “one-per-stratum” placement of the sample sites produces an unbiased “superefficient” spatial total estimator with respect to the uniform placement of independent sample sites. Variance properties and convergence results for the suggested estimator are given in a purely design-based approach without assuming any super-population model on the spatial correlation structure of the target attribute, as usually considered for systematic and stratified sampling of a two-dimensional population [see, e.g., Bellhouse (1977) and Breidt (1995)]. In contrast, the present findings are achieved by assuming very mild conditions on the function yy (which are likely to be met in any real survey) and by requiring simple conditions which avoid strata of too small or too large sizes, as well as strata with stretched shapes.

Appendix

Result 1.

Let yy be a Hölder function. Hence, since each AiA_{i} is assumed to be connected and yy is a continuous function, there exists u¯iAi\bar{u}_{i}\in A_{i} for each i=1,2,,ni=1,2,\ldots,n such that

y(u¯i)=E[y(Vi)].y(\bar{u}_{i})=\mathrm{E}[y(V_{i})].

Accordingly, since the Hölder condition holds for yy, we obtain

\operatornameVar[y(Vi)]\displaystyle\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{i})] =\displaystyle= E[(y(Vi)E[y(Vi)])2]=E[(y(Vi)y(u¯i))2]\displaystyle\mathrm{E}\bigl{[}\bigl{(}y(V_{i})-\mathrm{E}[y(V_{i})]\bigr{)}^{2}\bigr{]}=\mathrm{E}\bigl{[}\bigl{(}y(V_{i})-y(\bar{u}_{i})\bigr{)}^{2}\bigr{]}
\displaystyle\leq H2E[Viu¯i2α]\displaystyle H^{2}\mathrm{E}[\|V_{i}-\bar{u}_{i}\|^{2\alpha}]
\displaystyle\leq H2\operatornamediam(Ai)2αH2dn2α.\displaystyle H^{2}\operatorname{diam}(A_{i})^{2\alpha}\leq H^{2}d^{2\alpha}_{n}.

Hence, it holds that

σn2=i=1na(Ai)2\operatornameVar[y(Vi)]H2dn2αi=1na(Ai)2.\sigma_{n}^{2}=\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})^{2}\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{i})]\leq H^{2}d_{n}^{2\alpha}\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})^{2}.

Since a(Ai)dn2a(A_{i})\leq d^{2}_{n} and i=1na(Ai)=a(A)\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})=a(A), it also turns out that

σn2H2dn2+2αa(A).\sigma_{n}^{2}\leq H^{2}d_{n}^{2+2\alpha}a(A).

In addition, if condition (4) holds, it follows that

σn2b1+αH2a(A)n1α,\sigma_{n}^{2}\leq b^{1+\alpha}H^{2}a(A)n^{-1-\alpha},

that is, σn2=O(n1α)\sigma_{n}^{2}=O(n^{-1-\alpha}).

Result 2.

Let yy be a piecewise Hölder function on AA. Moreover, by denoting BB as the boundary of the partition, let us assume that

I={i\dvtxAiB}.I=\{i\dvtx A_{i}\cap B\neq\varnothing\}.

Moreover, if

M=supuA|y(u)|,M=\sup_{u\in A}|y(u)|,

then \operatornameVar[y(Vi)]M2\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{i})]\leq M^{2} and it holds that

iIa(Ai)2\operatornameVar[y(Vi)]M2dn4\operatornamecard(I),\sum_{i\in I}a(A_{i})^{2}\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{i})]\leq M^{2}d_{n}^{4}\operatorname{card}(I),

where card()(\cdot) denotes cardinality of a set. Since BB is rectifiable, it turns out that

\operatornamecard(I)C1n1/2,\operatorname{card}(I)\leq C_{1}n^{1/2},

where C1>0C_{1}>0 is a suitable bounded constant. Hence, by assuming condition (4), it follows that

iIa(Ai)2\operatornameVar[y(Vi)]b2M2C1n3/2.\sum_{i\in I}a(A_{i})^{2}\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{i})]\leq b^{2}M^{2}C_{1}n^{-3/2}.

In addition, since yy is a Hölder function on AiA_{i} for iIi\notin I, by assuming the achievements in Result 1, it holds that

iIa(Ai)2\operatornameVar[y(Vi)]H2dn4+2α\operatornamecard(Ic).\sum_{i\notin I}a(A_{i})^{2}\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{i})]\leq H^{2}d_{n}^{4+2\alpha}\operatorname{card}(I^{c}).

Moreover, it turns out that

\operatornamecard(Ic)C2n,\operatorname{card}(I^{c})\leq C_{2}n,

where C2>0C_{2}>0 is a suitable bounded constant. Thus, by assuming condition (4), it follows that

iIa(Ai)2\operatornameVar[y(Vi)]b2+αH2C2n1α.\sum_{i\notin I}a(A_{i})^{2}\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{i})]\leq b^{2+\alpha}H^{2}C_{2}n^{-1-\alpha}.

Hence, it is finally seen that

σn2b2M2C1n3/2+b2+αH2C2n1α,\sigma_{n}^{2}\leq b^{2}M^{2}C_{1}n^{-3/2}+b^{2+\alpha}H^{2}C_{2}n^{-1-\alpha},

that is, σn2=O(nmin(1+α,3/2))\sigma_{n}^{2}=O(n^{-\min(1+\alpha,3/2)}).

Remark 1.

If yy is not a constant function on AA and if condition (4) holds, it follows that

lim infni=1n\operatornameVar[y(Vi)]My,\liminf_{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{i})]\geq M_{y},

where My>0M_{y}>0 is a bounded constant depending on yy. Hence, from condition (5) we have

σn2c2Myn2.\sigma_{n}^{2}\geq c^{2}M_{y}n^{-2}.
Result 3.

Let yy be a Hölder function and let us assume that conditions (4) and (5) hold. In order to prove the large-sample normality of the estimator in (3), it suffices to verify the Lyapunov condition, that is,

limnvnσn3=0,\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}\frac{v_{n}}{\sigma_{n}^{3}}=0,

where

vn=i=1na(Ai)3E[|y(Vi)E[y(Vi)]|3].v_{n}=\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})^{3}\mathrm{E}\bigl{[}|y(V_{i})-\mathrm{E}[y(V_{i})]|^{3}\bigr{]}.

By assuming the notation and the findings of Result 1, it turns out that

vndn2i=1na(Ai)2E[|y(Vi)y(u¯i)|3].v_{n}\leq d_{n}^{2}\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})^{2}\mathrm{E}\bigl{[}|y(V_{i})-y(\bar{u}_{i})|^{3}\bigr{]}.

Moreover, since the Hölder condition holds for yy, it also follows that

vn\displaystyle v_{n} \displaystyle\leq Hdn2i=1na(Ai)2E[(y(Vi)y(u¯i))2Viu¯iα]\displaystyle Hd_{n}^{2}\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})^{2}\mathrm{E}\bigl{[}\bigl{(}y(V_{i})-y(\bar{u}_{i})\bigr{)}^{2}\|V_{i}-\bar{u}_{i}\|^{\alpha}\bigr{]}
\displaystyle\leq Hdn2+αi=1na(Ai)2\operatornameVar[y(Vi)]=Hdn2+ασn2\displaystyle Hd^{2+\alpha}_{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})^{2}\operatorname{Var}[y(V_{i})]=Hd_{n}^{2+\alpha}\sigma_{n}^{2}

and, hence,

vnσn3Hdn2+ασn.\frac{v_{n}}{\sigma_{n}^{3}}\leq\frac{Hd_{n}^{2+\alpha}}{\sigma_{n}}.

Thus, on the basis of condition (4) and Remark 1, it follows that

vnσn3c1b1+α/2HMy1/2nα/2\frac{v_{n}}{\sigma_{n}^{3}}\leq c^{-1}b^{1+\alpha/2}HM_{y}^{-1/2}n^{-\alpha/2}

and, hence, the Lyapunov condition is proven.

Remark 2.

The large-sample normality of the estimator in (3) may be proven even if yy is a piecewise Hölder function and conditions (4) and (5) hold. This result may be shown in a general setting by verifying the Raikov condition.

Result 4.

Since the estimator in (6) may be rewritten as

σ^n2=nn1i=1na(Ai)2y(Vi)21n1T^n2,\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}=\frac{n}{n-1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})^{2}y(V_{i})^{2}-\frac{1}{n-1}\widehat{T}_{n}^{2},

it follows that

E[σ^n2]\displaystyle\mathrm{E}[\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}] =\displaystyle= nn1i=1na(Ai)2E[y(Vi)2]1n1E[T^n2]\displaystyle\frac{n}{n-1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})^{2}\mathrm{E}[y(V_{i})^{2}]-\frac{1}{n-1}\mathrm{E}[\widehat{T}_{n}^{2}]
=\displaystyle= nn1(σn2+i=1nTi2)1n1(σn2+T2)=σn2+B[σ^n2].\displaystyle\frac{n}{n-1}\Biggl{(}\sigma_{n}^{2}+\sum_{i=1}^{n}T_{i}^{2}\Biggr{)}-\frac{1}{n-1}(\sigma_{n}^{2}+T^{2})=\sigma_{n}^{2}+\mathrm{B}[\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}].

On the basis of the notation and the findings of Result 1, since

TiMa(Ai),T_{i}\leq Ma(A_{i}),

where MM is defined in Result 2, it turns out that

i=1n(TiTn)2\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{n}\biggl{(}T_{i}-\frac{T}{n}\biggr{)}^{2} \displaystyle\leq 2i=1nTi2+2T2n1\displaystyle 2\sum_{i=1}^{n}T_{i}^{2}+2T^{2}n^{-1}
\displaystyle\leq 2M2i=1na(Ai)2+2T2n1\displaystyle 2M^{2}\sum_{i=1}^{n}a(A_{i})^{2}+2T^{2}n^{-1}
\displaystyle\leq 2M2a(A)dn2+2T2n1.\displaystyle 2M^{2}a(A)d_{n}^{2}+2T^{2}n^{-1}.

Hence, if condition (4) holds, it follows that

i=1n(TiTn)22(bM2a(A)+T2)n1\sum_{i=1}^{n}\biggl{(}T_{i}-\frac{T}{n}\biggr{)}^{2}\leq 2\bigl{(}bM^{2}a(A)+T^{2}\bigr{)}n^{-1}

and, hence, B[σ^n2]=O(n1)[\widehat{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]=O(n^{-1}).

Result 5.

Since the estimator in (7) may be rewritten as

σ~n2=a(A)2n2(i=1ny(Vi)2i=1n1y(Vi)y(Vi+1)),\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}=\frac{a(A)^{2}}{n^{2}}\Biggl{(}\sum_{i=1}^{n}y(V_{i})^{2}-\sum_{i=1}^{n-1}y(V_{i})y(V_{i+1})\Biggr{)},

it follows that

E[σ~n2]\displaystyle\mathrm{E}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}] =\displaystyle= a(A)2n2(i=1nE[y(Vi)2]i=1n1E[y(Vi)]E[y(Vi+1)])\displaystyle\frac{a(A)^{2}}{n^{2}}\Biggl{(}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\mathrm{E}[y(V_{i})^{2}]-\sum_{i=1}^{n-1}\mathrm{E}[y(V_{i})]\mathrm{E}[y(V_{i+1})]\Biggr{)}
=\displaystyle= σn2+i=1nTi2i=1n1TiTi+1=σn2+B[σ~n2].\displaystyle\sigma_{n}^{2}+\sum_{i=1}^{n}T_{i}^{2}-\sum_{i=1}^{n-1}T_{i}T_{i+1}=\sigma_{n}^{2}+\mathrm{B}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}].

Moreover, if yy is a Hölder function, we have

(TiTi+1)2\displaystyle(T_{i}-T_{i+1})^{2} \displaystyle\leq a(A)2n2(y(u¯i)y(u¯i+1))2\displaystyle\frac{a(A)^{2}}{n^{2}}\bigl{(}y(\bar{u}_{i})-y(\bar{u}_{i+1})\bigr{)}^{2}
\displaystyle\leq a(A)2n2H2u¯iu¯i+12α\displaystyle\frac{a(A)^{2}}{n^{2}}H^{2}\|\bar{u}_{i}-\bar{u}_{i+1}\|^{2\alpha}
\displaystyle\leq H2a(A)2Dn2αn2.\displaystyle H^{2}a(A)^{2}D_{n}^{2\alpha}n^{-2}.

Hence, if condition (8) holds, it turns out that

(TiTi+1)2kαH2a(A)2n2α.(T_{i}-T_{i+1})^{2}\leq k^{\alpha}H^{2}a(A)^{2}n^{-2-\alpha}.

Thus, it follows that

B[σ~n2]M2a(A)2n2+kαH2a(A)2n1α,\mathrm{B}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]\leq M^{2}a(A)^{2}n^{-2}+k^{\alpha}H^{2}a(A)^{2}n^{-1-\alpha},

where MM is defined in Result 2, and, hence, B[σ~n2]=O(n1α)[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]=O(n^{-1-\alpha}). Moreover, if condition (5) holds, owing to Remark 1, we obtain

n1P(|σ~n2E[σ~n2]σn2|>ε)\displaystyle\sum_{n\geq 1}P\biggl{(}\biggl{|}\frac{\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}-\mathrm{E}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]}{\sigma_{n}^{2}}\biggr{|}>\varepsilon\biggr{)} \displaystyle\leq n11σn8ε4E[(σ~n2E[σ~n2])4]\displaystyle\sum_{n\geq 1}\frac{1}{\sigma_{n}^{8}\varepsilon^{4}}\mathrm{E}\bigl{[}(\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}-\mathrm{E}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}])^{4}\bigr{]}
\displaystyle\leq n1n4c4My8ε4E[(σ~n2E[σ~n2])4]\displaystyle\sum_{n\geq 1}\frac{n^{4}}{c^{4}M_{y}^{8}\varepsilon^{4}}\mathrm{E}\bigl{[}(\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}-\mathrm{E}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}])^{4}\bigr{]}
\displaystyle\leq C3c4My8ε4n11n2<\displaystyle\frac{C_{3}}{c^{4}M_{y}^{8}\varepsilon^{4}}\sum_{n\geq 1}\frac{1}{n^{2}}<\infty

since

E[(σ~n2E[σ~n2])4]C3n6,\mathrm{E}\bigl{[}(\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}-\mathrm{E}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}])^{4}\bigr{]}\leq C_{3}n^{-6},

where C3>0C_{3}>0 is a suitable bounded constant. Hence, it follows that

limnσ~n2E[σ~n2]σn2=0.\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}\frac{\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}-\mathrm{E}[\widetilde{\sigma}_{n}^{2}]}{\sigma_{n}^{2}}=0.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Professor Lorenzo Fattorini for many helpful suggestions and Professor Luca Pratelli for useful advice in the proofs of the Appendix results. They are also grateful to Professor Piermaria Corona for providing the Monterano Nature Reserve data set.

References

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