Smooth surface reconstruction of earthquake faults from distributed potency beachballs –B
Smooth surface reconstruction of earthquake faults from distributed potency beachballs
keywords:
Earthquake source observations; Fractures, faults, and high strain deformation zones; Inverse theory; Theoretical seismologyEarthquake faults approximate smooth surfaces of displacement discontinuity in a coarse-grained linear continuum, and the beachball nodal planes of source inelastic strain (potency) indicate the normal vector (-vector) of the crack face. This theoretical relation has been used to interpret estimated potency as geometrical information of earthquake faults. We formulate an inverse analysis for reconstructing a smooth, three-dimensional fault surface from a given potency field. The analysis is grounded on the definition of the -vector that is orthogonality to a surface. It is shown from this definition that, whereas the estimated -vector field is always explained by a unique curve in two dimensions, the surface reconstruction from the estimated -vector field is an overdetermined problem with no solution in three dimensions. We resolve this overdetermination by adopting the original definition of a fault surface as a map that approximates a thin sheet of potency onto a displacement discontinuity across a literal face. An analytical expression for this fault reconstruction is derived and confirmed to reproduce the original three-dimensional smooth surface from a synthesized noisy -vector field. By incorporating this result into surface reconstruction based on potency density tensor inversion, we estimate the three-dimensional source fault geometry of the 2013 Balochistan earthquake. The estimated geometry is more consistent with the fault trace than the quasi-two-dimensional shape reconstruction as anticipated by our numerical experiments.
1 Introduction
Fault geometry predestines potential rupture modes and arrests of earthquakes (Das & Aki, 1977; Aki, 1979; Kase & Day, 2006; Bruhat et al., 2016; Ozawa et al., 2023). Therefore, fault geometry inference from actual data serves as a grasp of the source complexity that happened (Barka & Kadinsky-Cade, 1988; Kodaira et al., 2006; Ando & Kaneko, 2018; Howarth et al., 2021).
Great efforts accumulate to extract information on source fault geometry from observed data (e.g., Matsu’ura & Hasegawa, 1987; Volkov et al., 2017; Dutta et al., 2021). The simplest, highly successful example is a configuration estimation using a point or rectangular fault, which infers the center of masses, angles, and lengths of a fault (Matsu’ura & Hasegawa, 1987). Detailed slip patterns could be estimated from a distributed slip inversion on a prescribed fault surface (Yabuki & Matsu’ura, 1992).
Still, the inference of fault non-planarity is challenging. Fault subdivisions with planar subfaults have been heavily utilized in practice (e.g., Matsu’ura, 1977a, b; Loveless & Meade, 2010; Avouac et al., 2014; Jolivet et al., 2014). It, however, entails a mechanical difficulty of artificial stress infinity at subfault edges (Romanet et al., 2020, 2024; Mallick & Meade, 2025), and an issue of fault geometry inference is estimating macroscopic geometry, which is smooth, consistent with linear continuum mechanics (Matsu’ura et al., 2019). Distributed source inversions involving fault geometry inferences are proved to have solutions (Beretta et al., 2008; Volkov et al., 2017; Aspri et al., 2020; Diao et al., 2023), but how to solve them is under debate (Ragon et al., 2018; Dutta et al., 2021; Shimizu et al., 2021; Wei et al., 2023; Aspri et al., 2025).
This source geometry inference is entering a new phase owing to the potency density tensor inversion (PDTI, Kikuchi & Kanamori, 1991; Kasahara & Yagi, 2010; Shimizu et al., 2020), which reveals macroscopic fault geometry as spatially smooth rotations of estimated potency tensors. A seminal research of Kikuchi & Kanamori (1991) first infers a seismic source as inelastic strain (potency) distributed over a quasi-surface instead of as displacement discontinuity across a literal face. Nonetheless, their original PDTI is indistinct from planar fault subdivision and similar to multiple point source approaches (Tsai et al., 2005; Yue & Lay, 2020) because the prior constraint they employ is only the assumption of double-coupling potency imposed as a traceless and determinant-free constraint. A fine benefit of the PDTI comes from a prior constraint upon the fault geometry, which is, to our knowledge, first introduced by Kasahara & Yagi (2010). Smoothly varying macroscopic rotations of focal mechanisms are thus extracted by simply using a smoothness constraint on the model parameter in the PDTI. Kasahara & Yagi (2010) have further developed a stable scheme by accounting for the propagation of Green’s function errors (Yagi & Fukahata, 2010, 2011). Whereas the original intention of Kasahara & Yagi (2010) was rather to extract spatial variations in slip vectors and focal mechanisms themselves, Shimizu et al. (2020) point out that spatial patterns of the potency beachball diagram also document fault geometry as fault normal vector fields. The PDTI untangles source complexities in the perspective of fault geometry thereafter (Okuwaki et al., 2020; Tadapansawut et al., 2021; Fan et al., 2022; Ohara et al., 2023; Yagi et al., 2024; Inoue et al., 2025).
This natural extension of focal mechanism determination thus nearly establishes a methodology in which the macroscopic source geometry is immediately visualized as distributed potency beachballs. Shimizu et al. (2021) were able to estimate the fault geometry by further computing the normal vector (-vector) estimate, which is given by one nodal plane of estimated potency, and spatially integrating estimated fault slopes given by the 90-degree rotations of -vectors. However, the surface reconstruction procedure in Shimizu et al. (2021) cannot represent more than quasi-two-dimensional properties such as uniaxial bends and uniaxial twists. In fact, such a limitation stems from the seemingly harmless approach of constructing an optimum fault surface as an integral of optimum fault slopes. We show below that a fault slope field expected from the estimated -vector field is generally not integrable in three dimensions no matter how precise the observations are, and so that the key to inferring an earthquake fault as a macroscopic smooth surface is the stochastic inference of fault shape.
2 Problem setting of earthquake fault reconstruction from distributed potency
2.1 Forward model
Source geometry inference consists of the following three model equations.
The first model equation is the representation theorem for linear continua. Displacements of data components are expressed by linear combinations of potency areal densities at coordinates on faults (Kikuchi & Kanamori, 1991):
(1) |
where denotes Green’s function relating and . The same formulation of geometry inference applies to time-dependent problems, and we drop time dependence until our teleseismic applications.
The second model equation is the transformation of double couple sources to fault slips. When the potency density is double-coupled, it is expressed by the symmetrized tensor product of a slip vector and a fault normal :
(2) |
where the superscript denotes the transpose. Equation (2) tells that an -vector is either of the nodal planes of potency in the beachball diagram standard in seismic moment representations. It is equivalent to one of the normalized sums of the maximum and minimum eigenvectors of , accounting for the sign reversals of these eigenvectors. In this paper, we suppose that the normal for a point source solution (e.g., the first-motion solution) is known and assume that the -vector for is its closest nodal plane to . That is, the tilt of the -vector from the reference is assumed to be within 45 degrees. Increasing the number of reference point sources may satisfy this assumption. Note that seismic moment is ill-defined in a strict sense across a stiffness discontinuity (e.g., a plate boundary), but potency is well-defined even across it.
The source inversion via eq. (1) and the nodal-plane extraction by eq. (2) have established methods of analysis. The potency density tensor inversion of eq. (1) is similar to the slip inversion (Yabuki & Matsu’ura, 1992; Yagi & Fukahata, 2011). The nodal-plane extraction of eq. (2) is the same as that for moment beachballs.
What remains is the correspondence between -vectors and shapes of surfaces, and it is given by the definition of the -vector: the normal vector at a coordinate on a surface is orthogonal to the infinitesimal shift along at as
(3) |
In this paper, a ‘smooth surface’ denotes a surface whose shape is defined by eq. (3), known as a ‘regular surface’ in differential geometry. The orthogonality to the tangential plane defines the normal vector of the curved surface, and a relative location between two arbitrary points on a smooth surface is given by the line integral that satisfies eq. (3). Since the -vector field is equivalent to the shape of the smooth surface excepting its rigid-body translation, it entirely records the macroscopic smooth shape of a fault. Hereafter, one location on (or at least adjacent to) the fault (e.g., the rupture initiation point) is assumed to be known, and its estimation errors are neglected.
2.2 Detachment of surface reconstruction from potency estimation
Let us suppose that the potency density and the associated -vector field are evaluated given the well-known equations (1) and (2). Our focus is on how to translate them into through eq. (3). However, the domain of definition for the observed potency density depends on the fault shape (eq. 1). To perform the inference of prior to reconstructing , the representation theorem (eq. 1) must be projected onto some fixed surface, termed the reference surface (Fig. 1).

We now introduce as a flat plane perpendicular to passing through (Shimizu et al., 2020, also see Fig. 1); if necessary, multiple flat planes are incorporated. Coordinates on are parametrized as a function of the location taken on and the elevation of from . The positive direction of is directed to . Then, basis function expansions are applied to the potency density by using basis functions that depend only on . The -component of the potency density tensor is expressed by bases (), and the coefficients are stored in a vector as :
(4) |
Substituting it into eq. (1), we have
(5) |
where . Note the domain of the surface integral of is still the unknown . In the PDTI, is regularly approximated by a known surface (e.g., ) or an estimate [i.e., , see §6.1 for details]. In the above manner, the object to simultaneously estimate (fault potency and fault geometry) is decomposed into model parameters and . They are formally independent in the above formulation, and their dependencies are described by an additional constraint, which is the theme of this study.
3 How to map a potency density onto a fault shape
The translation of to express a potency distribution into a fault surface requires a function such that . When a potency density provides an -vector field, the function to be sought is one that transforms the -vector field into a surface shape. We formulate it in this section. Such a function corresponds to the inverse of eq. (3) mapping a surface onto an -vector field.
When eq. (3) holds, the relative displacement on , namely the fault shape, is equivalent to the field of . At the same time, the tensor shape of the potency dictates (eq. 2). Namely, is doubly characterized by and (Fig. 2). Those two are naively equal: articulating the -vector defined by as and the -vector defined by by ,
(6) |
Equation (6) is an absolute requirement in the conventional slip inversion, where is defined first and of constrains , the tensorial shape of the potency (e.g., Fukahata & Wright, 2008; Dutta et al., 2021). In the framework of the PDTI, which permits general inelastic strains beyond the displacement discontinuity representation, the inelastic strain is expressed as the potency first, and of provides the information of via eq. (6).

Based on this theoretical relationship (eq. 6), Shimizu et al. (2021) have reconstructed from the potency parametrized along a reference plane. The following equation is useful to transform the -vector field to the surface; eq. (3) describes the infinitesimal in attending the infinitesimal in ,
(7) |
where the subscript following a comma denotes the partial derivative. The elevation is a single-valued function of and since we have limited the discussion to the case where the -vector lies within 45 degrees from for guaranteeing the unique conversion from potency tensors to -vectors (§2.1).
Equation (7) states that the cotangent of the -vector coincides with the downward gradient of a curve in a two-dimensional space, and the slip direction perpendicular to the -vector is exactly the fault orientation in two dimensions. Hence, Shimizu et al. (2021) averaged the potency along the short side of the reference surface and smoothly connected the resulting -vector along the long side to extract two-dimensional geometrical features of a uniaxially bended fault (e.g., along-strike strike angle variations and along-dip dip angle variations). The same procedure could generate quasi-two-dimensional shapes including uniaxial twists such as along-strike dip variations and along-dip strike variations (§5.3). This paper counts such quasi-two-dimensional shape reconstruction as the previous method by Shimizu et al. (2021).
However, three-dimensional surface reconstruction is beyond the scope of the method of Shimizu et al. (2021), which is ascribed to the difference in the degrees of freedom of -vectors between two and three dimensions. In two dimensions, the -vector may be expressed by the polar angle . The transformation of a given -vector field to an elevation field is then a one-to-one mapping , which provides a unique field to an arbitrary smooth field. By contrast, in three dimensions, the -vector may be expressed by the polar angle and the azimuthal angle . Three-dimensional surface reconstruction from the -vector is therefore a two-to-one mapping from a vector field of and to a scalar field of , generally having no solutions for eqs. (6) and (7) unless the given -vector field is error-free. Namely, the surface reconstruction from potency is an overdetermined problem in three dimensions.
Its inverse, the one-to-two mapping of on , is precisely the definition of the normal vector simplified as eq. (7), and it is made bijective by the smoothness of the surface. A smooth surface with no tears, the aforementioned regular surface, sets a closed-path integral of relative elevation to zero:
(8) |
where denotes the two-dimensional partial differential operator. From Stokes’ theorem, it is expressed as
(9) |
that is,
(10) |
Under this constraint on by eq. (10), the one-to-two mapping of on becomes bijective. Equation (10) indicates that the requirement of the smooth surface with no tears is that is integrable, that is, the elevation is a continuous function with no jumps. Quasi-two-dimensional surface reconstruction is an approximation that neglects that the slope along the long side may vary along the short side (e.g. ), so it violates eq. (10) when the slope along the short side varies along the long side (e.g. ).
Substituting eq. (7) into eq. (10) leads to
(11) |
Two-dimensional shapes of uniaxial bending (single-curved surfaces) treated in Shimizu et al. (2021) always set both sides of eq. (11) equally to zero. However, only the error-free -vector field of a surface meets eq. (11) in three dimensions. Other than such special cases, the estimated normal vectors of curved surfaces violate the integrability condition of eq. (11), and that is the reason why the mapping of eqs. (6) and (7) is overdetermined:
(12) |
Since the source surface reconstruction via eqs. (6) and (7) is overdetermined and eq. (7) is the identity of the normal vector of a surface, surface reconstruction from given potency must read eq. (6) as some projection:
(13) |
where denotes some operation to remove non-integrable components such that . Only if that non-integrable portion of is removed, that is, only if illogical tears are ruled out, a fault is reconstructed as a smooth surface in a coarse-grained continuum.
Because mapping is impossible when the theoretical relationship between potency and shape of eq. (6) strictly holds, surface reconstruction from potency must loosen this premise. There remains, however, arbitrariness in eq. (13) on how that loosening is applied. We describe this subjective postulation as prior information. Equation (13) expects that the -vector of a surface approaches the -vector (defined by eq. 2) pointed by the nodal planes of potency beachballs. The constraint of approximating a normalized vector to a designated value yields a non-Gaussian central-limit distribution known as the von Mises-Fisher distribution; it measures the distance of vectors by the inner product, and for a uniform isotropic case,
(14) |
where denotes a scale factor, and is a normalization constant. The domain of integration is set to , and is independent of the way to take the reference surface .
Then, eq. (13) requires the limit that places in the integrable nearest neighbor of non-integrable , that is, the displacement discontinuity that best approximates given inelastic strain. It is termed dislocation limit hereafter, which is, in eq. (14),
(15) |
In this limit,
(16) |
where denotes Dirac delta and
(17) |
Here denotes the arguments of the maxima. In this paper, is taken as .
When expected from is small, obtained from eq. (13) is not so shifted from . Basically, we suppose such cases and proceed by assuming of eq. (14). However, the overdetermination of surface reconstruction, in which any surface cannot obey the forward model eq. (2) that yields eq. (6), leaves open the question of what priors are appropriate to loosen eq. (2) when of is not small. Even before the -vector is disturbed by measurement errors that do not satisfy eq. (6), the fault face as an earthquake source is an approximation of a fracture zone, which accounts for the nature of brittle failure that localizes within a quasi-face (Matsu’ura et al., 2019), so the exact observance of eq. (2) is originally unphysical. Thus, if read as a forward model prior to the observation, for returning a surface from a given -vector field is a probabilistic delineation of the ambiguity of an earthquake fault, an idealization of a thin sheet of inelastic deformation. is different from the posterior probability of fault shape. The -vector-geometry mapping, and therefore the surface reconstruction of earthquake faults from potency, are never beyond Bayesian probabilistic even when potency is given deterministically, and the posterior of fault shape is the convolution between the conditional prior of fault shape given potency and the posterior of potency (Appendix A).
4 An analytic solution for as the optimal elevation field
It has been shown inevitably probabilistic to project two degrees of freedom in the expected normal onto one degree of freedom in the smooth surface elevation. Bearing of eq. (14) in mind, we derive an analytical expression of the most probable surface estimate given the potency . This section assumes that the non-integrable component of (eq. 12) is small so that the solution of surface reconstruction does not depend much on the functional form of .
We have supposed that the potency density uniquely determines the field of the normal vector (§2.1), so the goal of this section is to obtain given . When the - plane describes the location along the reference surface , is parametrized by , which represents the elevation of from as a function of the position along the reference surface .
4.1 Governing equation
The governing equation of the problem is now the definitional identity of the -vector (eq. 7). It indicates the orthogonality between the -vector and a curved surface, which in three dimensions means more than that a 90-degree rotation (cotangent) of the -vector gives the downward surface slope; introducing
(18) | ||||
(19) |
we can rewrite eq. (7) as
(20) |
Namely, the -vector indicates the direction of the slope by its horizontal projection () as well as the downward slope by its horizontal-vertical ratio (Fig. 3).

The remaining analysis is straightforward when the -vector is parametrized in a spherical coordinate. Now the polar angle is set as the angle between and , and the azimuthal angle is measured from the axis. For this setting,
(21) | ||||
Note and . Plugging eq. (21) into eq. (20),
(22) |
Hereafter, the basis vectors for the position on a unit sphere pointing toward are denoted as (along the -vector), (parallel to the axis), and (parallel to the axis).
4.2 Solving a stochastic partial differential equation for fault elevation
The shape of is equivalent to both the field and the field, but formally, eq. (7) can be read as a partial differential equation of with a random external force imposed. The probability (eq. 14) describes fluctuations of the -vector from the expectation . We derive an analytical solution of this stochastic partial differential equation. For this derivation, we assume non-integrable components (eq. 12) of are small; the full-order derivation becomes complicated (Appendix B).
First, we rewrite the Cartesian forms of (eq. 14) and the partial differential equation of the elevation (eq. 7) in the spherical coordinate. In a spherical coordinate system at a unit spherical position (, ) of , is expressed as
(23) |
with associated coefficients (, , ). The first order of the Taylor series with respect to angle fluctuations and around yields
(24) | ||||
where denotes the -th order angle fluctuations from . Note and . The normalization condition of and the above expressions of and result in
(25) |
Therefore, for the von Mises-Fisher distribution of eq. (14), we have
(26) |
and
(27) |
where represents normalization. Only the second-order fluctuations from matter in the dislocation limit if non-integrable components (eq. 12) of are small.
We next evaluate the partial differential equation of the elevation (eq. 7), which is expressed as eq. (22) in the spherical coordinate. The Taylor series of eq. (22) in angle fluctuations from leads to
(28) |
where . Using eq. (21) again and taking the inner and cross products of and , we find
(29) | ||||
(30) |
or explicitly, recalling and (eq. 20),
(31) | ||||
(32) |
Plugging eqs. (31) and (32) into (eq. 27 with ), we arrive at
(33) | |||
Here (eq. 21) is also used. The area element along the fault is larger than the area element along the reference plane because of the tilt of the fault normal by :
(34) |
Note for below 45 degrees now considered. In the dislocation limit, with small non-integrable components (eq. 12) of , the higher order fluctuations from are dropped, and the most probable estimate for given is expressed as:
(35) | |||
where denotes the arguments of the minima. To avoid zero divisions at , among the weight in the first term was placed inside the brackets. The first term from the fluctuation constrains the -parallel component of the fault slope , and the second term from the fluctuation constrains the -perpendicular component of . Their weights and derive from the independence of from the reference plane orientation, and consequently, the constraints become weaker for steeper slopes (i.e., smaller for larger : ).
Thus, equations to be solved (eqs. 7 and 14) are reduced to a least square form of eq. (35). The rest of analysis is the ordinary linear inversion, which we omit to detail. We have solved it using a basis function expansion in this paper, instead of solving it in the continuous space, where the and derivatives of the -vector appear, complicating implementations outside differentiable programming. The basis functions employed are the quadratic B-spline functions as in the PDTI, with intervals 1.5 times wider than that of the PDTI. The surface integral of the loss function is collocated at the - positions of the spline knots adopted in the PDTI. We have removed the rigid-body translation of the fault by specifying a point with zero elevation. This translation of a fault is unconstrained in eq. (35) and does not affect fault elevations regardless of the way of removal.
The resultant estimation remains the least square using eqs. (31) and (32) even when generalizing to account for the expected elevation field such that
(36) |
Our PDTI application includes such terms for computational acceleration (§6.2). The scope of eq. (36) covers a generalization using the probabilities of source locations, such as surface reconstruction from the locations and mechanisms of distributed point sources. It is also applicable to incorporating the constraints on fault edge locations, such as accounting for fault surface traces and jointing multiple fault surfaces. Note other than eq. (14) is reduced to the quadratic form of eq. (36) when the higher orders are dropped. The explicit representation of those higher orders dropped in the dislocation limit is given by the non-perturbative expression of the -vector as a function of (eq. 37 in the next section).
5 Surface reconstruction from synthesized noisy normal vectors
We conduct synthetic tests of the most probable surface estimation (eq. 35) given the normal vector field. Simultaneous inference of potency density and geometry is often not significantly different from reconstructing fault geometry from the PDTI prescribing potency locations (Shimizu et al., 2021, also see §6.3). So this verification of surface reconstruction from a given noisy -vector field serves the core verification of the PDTI involving fault shape inference, which is performed in §6.
A correct elevation perpendicular to the reference plane - is first synthesized, and its normal vector field is given as disturbed by a noise . From this noisy , we compute an estimate of the elevation and check the accuracy compared to the correct shape. All components of the -vector are disturbed by Gaussian random numbers of mean 0 and standard deviation , and their normalized values are taken as . The values are collocated on the grid points, and we assume that the grid interval is enough large to neglect spatial correlations for simplicity. The grid is the same as the knot configuration in the basis function expansion of the PDTI appearing in our application (§6.3). It is arranged with 40 points along strike and 4 points along dip spaced by 5 km, containing 160 points in total. The length scale in the following tests is nondimensionalized by setting km at unity.
The transformation of the fault slope to the fault normal in Cartesian coordinates is given by eq. (7) and the normalization condition :
(37) | |||
For spherical coordinates, from eq. (22),
(38) | |||
where denotes 2-argument arctangent.
Two model shapes are considered. The first shape is a uniaxial twist (§5.1). It is accompanied with biaxial slopes, providing a simplest instance of a surface that is torn (i.e. eq. 11 is violated) if a uniaxial interpolation is applied to the -vector field. It is also an example of the surfaces that can be expressed by spline interpolation without interpolation errors, called developable surfaces. These make this geometry useful for method comparisons with the existing spline-interpolation-based approach (Shimizu et al., 2021). The second is a bowl shape (§5.2), which is an example of non-developable surfaces that intrinsically need stochastic reconstruction. A similar geometry is estimated in our case study of the 2013 Balochistan earthquake (§6.3). In both examples, the maximum horizontal component of the normal vector is approximately , and the normal vector is tilted by approximately 40 degrees from the reference plane. These are fairly curved shapes within the range where the conversion from potency beachballs to normal vectors is straightforward, that is within tilt angles of 45 degrees. There is little difference in the maximum normal between the two, but their reconstruction accuracies differ (§5.3).
Now we suppose . Since fairly curved surfaces are computed, large noise results in () outside the present problem setting. The condition is formally accounted for in the loss function of eq. (34), but our consideration following eq. (7) treats only the case of a single-valued on the - plane, where holds. The -vector determination assuming the -vector as the nodal plane closer to the reference has already assumed , so containing is supposed to be avoided in this study by setting multiple reference normals (§2.1). Stochastic surface reconstruction involving stochastic -vector determinations is left open for future study.
5.1 A uniaxial twist
The first test treats the uniaxial twist shown in Fig. 4. Its elevation is symmetrical about the short side (see Fig. 4 caption). Except for the center line , where identically, both and are non-zero, and the -vector varies three-dimensionally. The two-dimensional vizualizaiton of the shape is a birds-eye view hereafter.

The estimation results with a noise standard deviation of 0.05 are indicated in Fig. 5. Despite that the input -vectors are noisy, the estimated elevation is consistent with the original shape. Concavities and convexities at the four corners of the original shape are reproduced while the contours shift. As mentioned in the previous section, the noise component () almost surely does not satisfy the slope integrability condition (eq. 11). Therefore, when is disturbed from the -vector of a surface, the most probable surface (eq. 35) for given could selectively remove the noise in .

5.2 A bowl shape
The second test treats a bowl-shaped surface shown in Fig. 6, which is similar to the result of our actual data analysis concerning the 2013 Balochistan earthquake (§6.3). The elevation is expressed by a function that is parabolic along the long side and linear along the short side (see Fig. 6 caption). When is interpreted as the horizontal axis and as the vertical, the surface horizontally bends well at the top and increases vertical tilts at the horizontal end (larger for larger and larger for larger , roughly speaking).

The results for a standard deviation of 0.05 are indicated in Fig. 7 as in the first test. The reconstructed shape seems more stable than the reconstructed uniaxial twist. This difference suggests that when the -vector noise is at the same level, short-wavelength features such as topography are relatively susceptible to the -vector noise. Considering that wider-regional elevations are controlled by longer-wavelength slopes, we ascribe this tendency to the spatial averaging that low-passes the slope error in a long-wavelength scale. The higher surface reproducibility at longer wavelengths might be reinforced in the application to the PDTI, to which the spatial potency smoothing is commonly applied.

5.3 Robustness tests of surface reconstruction
Figure 8 summarizes the errors and residuals of the above two tests with variable noise levels. The estimation errors and data residuals for normal vectors (Fig. 8a, b) are both linear with the noise amplitude . The data residuals are visibly smaller than the noise amplitude, indicating significant variance reduction. The estimation error is smaller than the data residual , suggesting that the output denoises the given -vector rather than explains it. The spatial average of elevation errors ( in Fig. 8c, d) is more scattered than that of normal vectors (Fig. 8a, b), and its average is roughly proportional to the square root of the noise amplitude of the normal vectors that approximates squared angle fluctuations. The elevation residuals are roughly the same between the two shapes (Fig. 8c, d), and these same-order absolute residuals indicate a significant difference in relative residuals, supporting higher reproducibility of a bowl-shaped curve compared to uniaxially twisting roughness observed in the previous subsections.

For comparison, we have also evaluated quasi-two-dimensional surface construction from Shimizu et al. (2021) (quasi 2D in Fig. 8c, d). It evaluates the elevation as by using the mean slope integrated over the short side . We assume at the reference plane center is known in this quasi-two-dimensional reconstruction. The stochastic surface reconstruction works well as quasi-two-dimensional reconstruction for small noise, and for large noise, rather has smaller estimation errors. Even for a uniaxial twist, for which quasi-two-dimensional approximation is errorless, the accuracy of is higher, though the difference is less than accuracy variations (Fig. 8c). Meanwhile, for a bowl shape similar to the fault shape inferred in our application (§6.3), the accuracy of is a few times greater than the quasi-two-dimensional benchmark for the maximum noise amplitude in this test (Fig. 8d).
The fault we use here has a narrow width, so quasi-two-dimensional interpolation from Shimizu et al. (2021) provides a good approximation if no noise exists. Even for such high-aspect-ratio source faults, nonetheless, the results of this study indicate that a probabilistic approach is beneficial for surface reconstruction from noisy -vector fields. Rather than reducing noise through the law of large numbers associated with averaging along the short sides, denoising based on the a priori knowledge that -vector components that do not satisfy the slope integrability condition (eq. 11) are fictitious is likely to better reproduce the original shape.
6 Application
Finally, we apply our normal-to-elevation projection to the PDTI involving surface reconstruction (Shimizu et al., 2021). The aim of this section is three-dimensional earthquake fault inference.
6.1 Incorporating three-dimensional surface reconstruction with Bayesian PDTI
For the application, we combine the prior constraint on fault geometry with the posterior probability of the potency density in the orthodox PDTI. We have considered static problems so far, and hereafter we also consider dynamic problems to invert teleseismic data. The result obtained thus far is applicable as is even when the representation theorem becomes time-dependent and the basis functions are spanned spatiotemporally.
The formulation of the orthodox PDTI, both for static and dynamic problems, consists of the potency likelihood , which is given by data through the representation theorem, and the prior for the potency density subject to the basis function expansions . The scales of variances for the likelihood and weight factors for prior loss functions are simultaneously estimated. Usually, represents the scales of observation errors and Green’s function errors (Yagi & Fukahata, 2011), and represents the smoothing intensities with respect to space and time (Shimizu et al., 2020). The problem to be solved here consists of these and and the prior for the surface , and its formal solution is the joint posterior of and :
(39) |
where
(40) |
The analysis for the dislocation limit is simplified when the joint posterior is decomposed into the marginal posterior of the potency and the conditional posterior of the surface :
(41) |
From eq. (16),
(42) | ||||
(43) |
That is, the evaluation of is reduced to the alternate recursion of the most probable estimation of given returning (eq. 43) and the inference of given (eq. 42).
We evaluate the hyperparameter optimals and by Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC; Akaike, 1980):
(44) |
The associated optimals of the potency density and fault surface are evaluated by the posterior maximum:
(45) |
Neglecting the third- and higher-order moments from the probability peaks as in Shimizu et al. (2021), eqs. (40) and (42) are simplified as
(46) |
and
(47) |
Besides, from eqs. (41) and (43),
(48) |
Thus, our optimum-value estimation is the alternate recursion of solving for given and solving for given . The analysis with a fixed is exactly the orthodox source inversion with fixed geometry (Yagi & Fukahata, 2011; Shimizu et al., 2020), and the analysis of given is what this study has examined. Once and are obtained, the uncertainty of is evaluable through eq. (47) by using . Hyperparameter uncertainty is similarly evaluable using for given , though it is a sharply peaked well-behaved distribution and follows the law of large numbers exceptionally rapidly when and are exponential loss weights (Sato et al., 2022).
The above procedure does not include explicit uncertainty evaluations. In the present problem setting using a delta-functional , the estimation error of solely derives from error propagation from the potency density estimation, and its evaluation requires another joint posterior decomposition and the evaluation of . Due to the slope integrability (eq. 11) on a smooth surface, the posterior of the fault surface is deviated from the posterior of the -vector field expected from the potency density (Appendix A). The evaluation of corresponds to the conventional slip inversion, where the potency density is forced to be a displacement discontinuity field across given .
6.2 Recipe
The computations of , , and (eqs. 44 and 45) as per eqs. (46)–(48) are formally the same as those of Shimizu et al. (2021) that alternately evaluate for given and for given . Therefore, simply updating their fault reconstruction stage enables their routine to reconstruct three-dimensional fault geometry.
Figure 9 outlines our computational routine following Shimizu et al. (2021). (I: Fault model initialization) A structured grid is set along the reference plane, and the spatial knots for potency density interpolations are placed at grid centers; non-planar initializations following stage V below are optionally applied. (II: PDTI with Green’s function computations) The PDTI is performed, with Green’s function approximated by point-source representations; when the point sources are allocated to grid centers, they are weighted by the areas of gridded subsurfaces. (III: Nodal plane extraction) The -vector estimates of point sources are computed as nodal planes of estimated potency beachballs; the -vector field estimate is approximately computed by their interpolation. (IV: Surface reconstruction) The elevation field is reconstructed from the -vector field estimate. (V: PDTI with Green’s function updates) The aforementioned structured grid is vertically projected onto the reconstructed fault surface, and the vertical positions of sources and the areas of gridded subsurfaces are updated accordingly; the PDTI updates the potency beachballs and the loop returns to the stage III.

In summary, once the PDTI is performed, potency beachballs set an -vector field, which in turn reconstructs the fault surface, the continuous information of which is subdivided as a digital elevation model to update Green’s function for the next PDTI. The digital elevation model is now computed by the Visualization Toolkit (Schroeder et al., 1998), and we call it by using a Python helper PyVista (Sullivan & Kaszynski, 2019). We execute the following two operations via PyVista: (A) the projection of the structured grid generated by numpy.meshgrid onto the reconstructed fault surface (pyvista.StructuredGrid) and (B) the computation of source locations and subdivided areas on vertically projected structured grids (compute_cell_sizes, cell_centers).
We solve this recursion by a gradient descent, where the determination (eq. 35) is modified by a penalty term on the residual elevation from a given shape with elevation as
(49) | |||
and each surface update accounts for the pre-update state:
(50) | ||||
The elevation of the -th iteration is updated to , and is the learning rate of this gradient descent. When iterations converge, is met, and the surface optimal is the solution that satisfies for .
6.3 Case study of the 2013 Balochistan earthquake
The 2013 Balochistan earthquake struck southwestern Pakistan on 24 September 2013. It is moment magnitude (Mw) 7.7 oblique strike-slip faulting, yet variations in the centroid moment tensor solutions and geological features (e.g. Avouac et al., 2014; Jolivet et al., 2014) may collectively suggest source complexities typified by fault nonplanarity. Its slip zone is the Hoshab fault situated in the transition between the Chaman fault system and the accretionary wedge (Avouac et al., 2014), so a wedge-slicing listric fault is likely; however, it was hard for multiple point source approaches to constrain whether the listric or non-listric fault is the preferred geometry for this earthquake (Jolivet et al., 2014). The PDTI detects major along-strike variations of potency tensors as well as minor along-dip variations, but three-dimensional geometry construction was beyond the reach of previous efforts (Shimizu et al., 2020, 2021). Enabling the PDTI to reconstruct three-dimensional geometry, we attempt to extract the listric geometry of this earthquake fault.
Data and data processing in this application follow those of Shimizu et al. (2020), which consist of observed vertical components of teleseismic P waveforms converted to velocities at 36 stations shown in Figs. 2(c) and S1 of Shimizu et al. (2021). The only update from the method and data of Shimizu et al. (2021) is the three-dimensional fault reconstruction of eq. (50).
Previous studies have shown that the solution updates could mostly finish with the first iteration (Shimizu et al., 2021), so it would be helpful to delve into the initial surface reconstruction. Figure 10 plots the surface reconstruction from the potency beachballs distributed over the reference plane (Shimizu et al., 2020), which is the same initial input as that of Shimizu et al. (2021). The reference plane is taken as a vertical plane through the hypocenter with a strike angle of 226 degrees, setting the southwest and the upward positive. Figure 10 employs and uses eq. (35) as in the synthetic tests. Normal vectors evaluated from the PDTI provide expected fault slopes as an input set (Fig. 10a). The fault elevation field is then reconstructed as an output (Fig. 10b). Slopes of the reconstructed surface well explain the input slopes (Fig. 11). Residuals of -vectors are generally random, with some correlation with neighboring points due to smoothing imposed on the potency density estimate. The smooth surface reconstruction provides subfault elevations and subfault areas for horizontal fault subdivision, which convert the areal density of potency to distributed potency sources, updating Green’s function for the PDTI of the next iteration.



Iterative shape updates are shown in Fig. 12. The shape is quickly constrained at the center of large slips, and the convergence is slow at the edges of small slips, where the constraint is relatively weak. High learning rates vibrate poorly constrained regions (fault edges in Fig. 12a–d) while low learning rates slow down updates (Fig. 12i–l), as is often the case with gradient descents. The inference with adjusted learning rates converges to the optimal within a few iterations (Fig. 12e–h). The first surface reconstruction of relatively high learning rates (Fig. 12b) outlines a converged fault shape, as in a quasi-two-dimensional approach by Shimizu et al. (2021). Our estimate progressively approaches the surface rupture identified in the field survey (Zinke et al., 2014, Fig. 12 red line) in spite of not incorporating the surface trace. In Shimizu et al. (2021), the dip was fixed at 90 degrees so that their estimate (Fig. 12, blue line) shifted northward from the surface trace near 50 km southwest of the hypocenter, and it is resolved in the present inversion.

We thus obtain the optimal solution as in Fig. 13 (, sixth iteration). The along-strike curve is steeper at shallower depths, and the dip angle becomes sharper at greater depths, so the reconstructed fault forms a bowl-shaped surface. It agrees with the geometry expected for a listric fault. Although the input -vectors corresponding to the B-spline knots of the PDTI have only four points along the dip, the reconstructed surface draws along-strike-varying along-dip variations. Such smooth strike-and-dip variations had already been captured by the beachball nodal planes without performing surface reconstruction (Fig. 11), but the three-dimensional surface reconstruction has made the interpretation more intuitive. Along-depth elevations of a few dozen kilometers are consistent with the constant-dip fault model of Jolivet et al. (2014) that is generated from distributed point source modeling. At the same time, like the other model of Jolivet et al. (2014) oriented to the geological setting of listric faults, the fault reconstructed in this study holds three-dimensional attributes.

Since the dip angle unnaturally flips near 150 km strike at depth (Fig. 9), the accuracy around the southwestern edge is doubtful. The non-slipping zone is suggested to be poorly constrained even with prior information on the smoothness of potency densities. It may be overcome by trimming source faults, for example, by using informatics to determine the minimum number of beachballs required to describe source faults (Thurin, 2024), and the same might apply to the decision of the number of faults. The elevation north of the epicenter is estimated systematically lower than the surface trace as in Shimizu et al. (2021), and it is likely due to smoothing out a near-hypocenter stepover visible in the surface trace. The use of surface rupture traces as an a priori constraint would bring fault shapes closer to the actual. The method validation is in progress as above, but anticipating that case studies ensue and reveal the workings of the fault reconstruction from potency, we submit the result of the simplest method (eq. 50) as a baseline solution.
7 Concluding remarks
We study surface reconstruction from the potency field, where a smooth surface is constructed from the estimated -vector field pointed by the nodal planes of estimated potency beachballs. The contribution of this work is the derivation of a formula that enables the three-dimensional surface reconstruction left behind by Shimizu et al. (2021). Our investigation reveals that the three-dimensional surface reconstruction is overdetermined, thus necessitating a stochastic approach. This transition is inevitable in the surface reconstruction from potency. The same could apply to surface reconstruction from distributed point sources, and our formulation is applicable to surface reconstruction from multiple coseismic focal mechanisms (Yue & Lay, 2020), aftershock hypocenters (Fuenzalida et al., 2013; Wang et al., 2021; Sawaki et al., 2025), and earthquake swarms (Yukutake et al., 2011; Ross et al., 2020). Given the above nature of surface reconstruction elucidated, we have formulated and solved the problem of stochastic surface reconstruction from a given -vector field, and our synthetic tests confirm that the solution of this problem reproduces the original surface from noisy -vector data. Even for narrow faults, three-dimensional probabilistic approaches can better reproduce the original shape than deterministic quasi-two-dimensional approaches. A preliminary analysis of the 2013 Balochistan earthquake captured along-dip shape variability that was not reconstructed by Shimizu et al. (2021). There remains a jump to actual applications, but at present, it works.
Acknowledgements.
The first author D.S. acknowledges valuable comments from Dr. Haruo Horikawa. This work was in part supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers JP21H05206 and JP25K01084.Data availability
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Appendix A Estimation error propagation from potency to fault shape
The prior of shape shown in §3 and the posterior of potency [ in the text] set the marginal posterior of fault shape:
(A.1) |
Here we show the procedure to translate into when satisfies (eq. 13).
For brevity, we introduce the (marginal) posterior of the -vector field associated with the potency density:
(A.2) |
and of eq. (14) rewrite the marginal posterior of the fault shape as
(A.3) |
the right-hand side of which describes the transformation from the posterior of the fault normal anticipated from potency into the posterior of fault shape. Especially when , is extremely sharper than and satisfies (eq. 13), leading to
(A.4) |
where denotes normalization. Contrary to its appearance, eq. (A.4) does not conclude that the posterior of fault surface equals the posterior of the potency-conforming -vector : The -vector field determined from potency can exceed the definition domain of the -vector field on a smooth surface bounded by the surface slope integrability (eq. 11) as indicated in §3, and therefore eq. (A.4) becomes
(A.5) |
Thus, searching for the optimum -vector field of a smooth surface from the posterior of potency is a conditional optimization constrained by . The inference of the optimum elevation automatically satisfies and evades this complication as in §3. The surface reconstruction from this is generally a non-linear analysis based on eq. (37) relating surface normal and surface slope . The evaluation of eq. (37) passes through the similar procedure to that shown in §4.2. Equation (A.5) also applies to other than eq. (14) when (eq. 13) is met.
We must remark that the non-uniqueness of functional forms of , which was an issue in surface reconstruction from given potency, does not matter in surface reconstruction from the posterior probability of potency (eq. A.5). It could answer why the overdetermination of surface reconstruction from potency has not posed an issue in slip inversions on a movable fault surface. After all, we must embrace either the subjectivity inherent in projecting observed inelastic strains onto displacement discontinuities or the subjectivity that forbids all but displacement discontinuities: in the text or equivalent to the slip inversions with a movable fault surface (§6.1).
Appendix B The exact solution of for finite
The evaluation of in the text (§4.2) has assumed that the non-integrable component expected from the -vector of potency is small. Its motive is to avoid an issue of selection arising from finite (§3, the last paragraph). For deeper considerations, we show below the way to evaluate for given for finite . We treat eq. (14) with as a concrete example, and similar results follow other forms of .
Even in the dislocation limit (eq. 13, for eq. 14), the -vector of a surface is necessarily deviated from the expectation of potency due to the non-integrable components of . What is expected in this limit is the smallness of the fluctuations from with non-integrable components removed, that is, the -vector of to be sought itself. This -vector of , the solution to be sought, is here denoted by :
(B.1) |
Therefore, if is finite, the fast convergent series in the dislocation limit is the Taylor series of around , not the Taylor series of around conducted in the text.
We now perform this corrected series expansion to account for components dropped in §4.2. By utilizing
(B.2) |
we obtain the second-order representation of around with respect to the angle fluctuations from :
(B.3) | |||
where denotes the position of on a unit sphere, and and represent associated basis vectors; higher orders become infinitesimally smaller in the dislocation limit. Especially for of eq. (14) with ,
(B.4) | ||||
(B.5) |
The first term replicates the right-hand side of eq. (26) with substituted with and thus functions similarly to those seen in the text. The second term is the correction arising from the deviation of from , explicitly written as
(B.6) | |||
Angle fluctuations and are expressed by eqs. (31) and (32) in the text with a substitution :
(B.7) | ||||
(B.8) |
The rest is unaltered from the text, and the final result is:
(B.9) | |||
Equation (B.9) is a self-consistent equation, where the condition to determine contains the -vector of () and the basis vectors ( and ) at the spherical position of that -vector. For small , holds, and the correction becomes negligible, resulting in eq. (35) of the main text. Although the above correction is not accounted for in the main text supposing small , the correction may be iteratively computed with the initialization of . The correction for other than eq. (14) is similarly evaluated using eqs. (B.3), (B.7), and (B.8).