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Tamagawa products of elliptic curves over \mathbb{Q}

Michael Griffin, Ken Ono and Wei-Lun Tsai Department of Mathematics, 275 TMCB, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602 mjgriffin@math.byu.edu Department of Mathematics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904 ken.ono691@virginia.edu tsaiwlun@gmail.com
Abstract.

We explicitly construct the Dirichlet series

LTam(s):=m=1PTam(m)ms,L_{\mathrm{Tam}}(s):=\sum_{m=1}^{\infty}\frac{P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(m)}{m^{s}},

where PTam(m)P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(m) is the proportion of elliptic curves E/E/\mathbb{Q} in short Weierstrass form with Tamagawa product m.m. Although there are no E/E/\mathbb{Q} with everywhere good reduction, we prove that the proportion with trivial Tamagawa product is PTam(1)=0.5053.P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1)={\color[rgb]{0,0,0}0.5053\dots.} As a corollary, we find that LTam(1)=1.8193L_{\mathrm{Tam}}(-1)={\color[rgb]{0,0,0}1.8193\dots} is the average Tamagawa product for elliptic curves over .\mathbb{Q}. We give an application of these results to canonical and Weil heights.

Key words and phrases:
Elliptic curves, Tamagawa numbers, heights of rational points

1. Introduction and statement of results

It is well known that there are no elliptic curves E/E/\mathbb{Q} with everywhere good reduction (for example, see Ch. VII-XIII of [13]). In spite of this fact, there are many E/,E/\mathbb{Q}, such as

E/:y2=x33x4,E/\mathbb{Q}:\ \ y^{2}=x^{3}-3x-4,

(i.e. 5184.m1 in [10]) with the weaker property that [E(p):E0(p)]=1[E(\mathbb{Q}_{p}):E_{0}(\mathbb{Q}_{p})]=1 for all primes pp, where E0(p)E_{0}(\mathbb{Q}_{p}) is the open subgroup of E(p)E(\mathbb{Q}_{p}) consisting of nonsingular points. These Tamagawa trivial curves have

(1.1) Tam(E):=pprimecp=1,\mathrm{Tam}(E):=\prod_{p\ prime}c_{p}=1,

where cp:=[E(p):E0(p)]c_{p}:=[E(\mathbb{Q}_{p}):E_{0}(\mathbb{Q}_{p})] is the usual Tamagawa number at pp.

Tamagawa trivial curves enjoy properties that motivate this note. For example, if E/E/\mathbb{Q} is a Tamagawa trivial curve for which E()E(\mathbb{Q}) has rank r,r, then the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture predicts that

L(r)(E,1)r!=|(E)|ΩERE|Etor()|2.\frac{L^{(r)}(E,1)}{r!}=\frac{|\Sh(E)|\cdot\Omega_{E}R_{E}}{|E_{\mathrm{tor}}(\mathbb{Q})|^{2}}.

Here L(E,s)L(E,s) is the Hasse-Weil LL-function for E/E/\mathbb{Q}, (E)\Sh(E) is the Shafarevich-Tate group, ΩE\Omega_{E} is the real period, RER_{E} is the regulator, and Etor()E_{\mathrm{tor}}(\mathbb{Q}) is the \mathbb{Q}-rational torsion subgroup. Tamagawa trivial elliptic curves also play a prominent role in the work of Balakrishnan, Kedlaya, and Kim [3] that offers the first explicit positive genus examples of nonabelian Chabauty: the case of quadratic Chabauty for determining integral points on rank 1 elliptic curves [3, 8]. The main result of [3] is formulated for these curves. As a final example, we consider convenient elliptic curves, a subclass of Tamagawa trivial curves with the guaranteed property (i.e. without computing E()E(\mathbb{Q})) that h^(P)12hW(P)\widehat{h}(P)\geq\frac{1}{2}h_{W}(P) for all PE(),P\in E(\mathbb{Q}), where h^(P)\widehat{h}(P) (resp. hW(P)h_{W}(P)) is the canonical (resp. Weil) height of PP.

It is also natural to consider curves with any fixed Tamagawa product mm. As motivation, we recall that algorithms of Mazur, Stein, and Tate [11] for computing the global pp-adic heights of rational points on elliptic curves assume that the reductions of points at primes of bad reduction are non-singular. In follow-up work by Balakrishnan, Çiperiani, and Stein [2], and Balakrishnan, Çiperiani, Lang, Mirza, and Newton [1], where points can be defined over a more general number field, such assumptions can be computationally expensive. The knowledge of the proportion of curves with arbitrary Tamagawa product mm gives an indication of the cost of such algorithms.

Motivated by these applications, we compute the proportion of short Weierstrass elliptic curves

(1.2) E=E(a4,a6):y2=x3+a4x+a6,E=E(a_{4},a_{6}):\ \ y^{2}=x^{3}+a_{4}x+a_{6},

with a4,a6a_{4},a_{6}\in\mathbb{Z} and Δ(a4,a6):=16(4a43+27a62)0,\Delta(a_{4},a_{6}):=-16(4a_{4}^{3}+27a_{6}^{2})\neq 0, with Tam(E)=m.\mathrm{Tam}(E)=m. To this end, we recall that EE has height

(1.3) 0pt(E):=max{4|a4|3,27a62},0pt(E):=\max\{4|a_{4}|^{3},27a_{6}^{2}\},

and we employ the counting function

(1.4) 𝒩(X):=#{E=E(a4,a6): 0pt(E)X},\mathcal{N}(X):=\#\{E=E(a_{4},a_{6})\ :\ \ 0pt(E)\leq X\},

which is the number of E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) with height X.\leq X. The number with Tamagawa product mm is

(1.5) 𝒩m(X):=#{E:=E(a4,a6): 0pt(E)Xwith Tam(E)=m},\mathcal{N}_{m}(X):=\#\{E:=E(a_{4},a_{6})\ :\ 0pt(E)\leq X\ {\text{\rm with $\mathrm{Tam}(E)=m$}}\},

where Tam(E)\mathrm{Tam}(E) is the product for the global minimal model111By Lemma 3.2, the proportion of E=E(a4,a6)E=E(a_{4},a_{6}) with 0pt(E)X0pt(E)\leq X that are already minimal is ρ=0.9960\rho=0.9960\dots. of EE. Our aim is to compute

(1.6) PTam(m):=limX+𝒩m(X)𝒩(X).P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(m):=\lim_{X\rightarrow+\infty}\frac{\mathcal{N}_{m}(X)}{\mathcal{N}(X)}.

We compute the Dirichlet series generating function for these proportions.

Theorem 1.1.

The PTam(m)P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(m) are well-defined, and are the Dirichlet coefficients of

LTam(s):=m=1PTam(m)ms=pprime(δp(1)1s+δp(2)2s+δp(3)3s+),L_{\mathrm{Tam}}(s):=\sum_{m=1}^{\infty}\frac{P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(m)}{m^{s}}=\prod_{p\ prime}\left(\frac{\delta_{p}(1)}{1^{s}}+\frac{\delta_{p}(2)}{2^{s}}+\frac{\delta_{p}(3)}{3^{s}}+\dots\right),

where δp(n)\delta_{p}(n) are rational numbers defined in Lemma 3.1.

Remark.

The number δp(n)\delta_{p}(n) is the proportion of short Weierstrass curves whose minimal model has cp=n.c_{p}=n. Cremona and Sadek [7] compute such proportions for long Weierstrass models, which are different for p{2,3}.p\in\{2,3\}. Our choice is motivated by an application to heights (see Corollary 1.5).

Corollary 1.2.

Assuming the notation above, the following are true.

  1. (1)

    We have that

    PTam(1)=pprimeδp(1)=0.5053,P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1)=\prod_{p\ prime}\delta_{p}(1)={\color[rgb]{0,0,0}0.5053\dots},

    where δ2(1)=241/396\delta_{2}(1)=241/396, δ3(1)=1924625/2125728\delta_{3}(1)=1924625/2125728, and for primes p5p\geq 5 we have

    δp(1)= 1p(6p7+9p6+9p5+7p4+8p3+7p2+9p+6)6(p+1)2(p8+p6+p4+p2+1).\delta_{p}(1)=\displaystyle{\ 1-\frac{p(6p^{7}+9p^{6}+9p^{5}+7p^{4}+8p^{3}+7p^{2}+9p+6)}{6(p+1)^{2}(p^{8}+p^{6}+p^{4}+p^{2}+1)}}.
  2. (2)

    For primes \ell, we have PTam()=pδp()qpprimeδq(1).P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(\ell)=\sum_{p}\delta_{p}(\ell)\prod_{\begin{subarray}{c}q\neq p\\ prime\end{subarray}}\delta_{q}(1).

Example.

These tables give PTam(1),,PTam(12),P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1),\dots,P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(12), and show the convergence to PTam(1),P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1), PTam(2),P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(2), and PTam(3).P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(3).

mm 11 22 33 44 55 66
PTam(m)P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(m) 0.50530.5053\dots 0.33910.3391\dots 0.06830.0683\dots 0.06220.0622\dots 7.98×1057.98\dots\times 10^{-5} 0.01580.0158\dots
mm 77 88 99 1010 1111 1212
PTam(m)P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(m) 5.56×1065.56\dots\times 10^{-6} 0.00560.0056\dots 0.00110.0011\dots 4.56×1054.56\dots\times 10^{-5} 2.01×1072.01\dots\times 10^{-7} 0.00150.0015\dots
Table 1. Proportions PTam(1),,PTam(12)P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1),\dots,P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(12)
XX 𝒩1(X)/𝒩(X)\mathcal{N}_{1}(X)/\mathcal{N}(X) 𝒩2(X)/𝒩(X)\mathcal{N}_{2}(X)/\mathcal{N}(X) 𝒩3(X)/𝒩(X)\mathcal{N}_{3}(X)/\mathcal{N}(X)
10610^{6} 0.50720.5072\dots 0.33840.3384\dots 0.06720.0672\dots
10810^{8} 0.50560.5056\dots 0.33890.3389\dots 0.06850.0685\dots
\vdots \vdots\ \ \ \vdots\ \ \ \vdots\ \ \
\infty 0.5053{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}0.5053\dots} 0.3391{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}0.3391\dots} 0.0683{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}0.0683\dots}
Table 2. Convergence to PTam(1),PTam(2)P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1),P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(2) and PTam(3)P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(3)

To place Theorem 1.1 in context, we recall that work by Klagsbrun and Lemke-Oliver [9], and of Chan, Hanselman and Li [6] shows that Tam(E)\mathrm{Tam}(E) is unbounded in families of elliptic curves with prescribed \mathbb{Q}-rational 2-torsion. Moreover, Figure A.14 of [4] suggests an “average Tamagawa product” of 1.82,\approx 1.82\dots, which we confirm using

(1.7) STam(X):=0pt(E(a4,a6))XTam(E(a4,a6)),S_{\mathrm{Tam}(X)}:=\sum_{0pt(E(a_{4},a_{6}))\leq X}\mathrm{Tam}(E(a_{4},a_{6})),

and the convergent special value of LTam(1).L_{\mathrm{Tam}}(-1).

Theorem 1.3.

We have

LTam(1)=limX+STam(X)𝒩(X)=1.8193L_{\mathrm{Tam}}(-1)=\lim_{X\rightarrow+\infty}\frac{S_{\mathrm{Tam}}(X)}{\mathcal{N}(X)}={\color[rgb]{0,0,0}1.8193\dots}
Example.

Table 3 illustrates Theorem 1.3.

XX 10410^{4} 10610^{6} 10810^{8} \dots \dots \infty
STam(X)/𝒩(X)S_{\mathrm{Tam}}(X)/\mathcal{N}(X) 1.83581.8358\dots 1.82911.8291\dots 1.82401.8240\dots \dots 1.8193{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}1.8193\dots}
Table 3. Convergence to average Tamagawa product

Finally, we identify a subclass of elliptic curves that are convenient for height calculations. For E=E(a4,a6),E=E(a_{4},a_{6}), each PE()P\in E(\mathbb{Q}) has the form P=(AC2,BC3)P=(\frac{A}{C^{2}},\frac{B}{C^{3}}), with A,B,C,A,B,C\in\mathbb{Z}, with gcd(A,C)=gcd(B,C)=1\gcd(A,C)=\gcd(B,C)=1. The naive height of PP is H(P):=max(|A|,|C2|).H(P):=\max(|A|,|C^{2}|). The Weil height is hW(P):=logH(P),h_{W}(P):=\log H(P), and the canonical height is

(1.8) h^(P):=12limnhW(nP)n2.\widehat{h}(P):=\tfrac{1}{2}\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{h_{W}(nP)}{n^{2}}.

Logarithmic and canonical heights are generally close. Generalizing an observation of Buhler, Gross and Zagier [5], we identify a natural subset of Tamagawa trivial curves that automatically (i.e. without computing E()E(\mathbb{Q})) have the property that h^(P)12hW(P)\widehat{h}(P)\geq\frac{1}{2}h_{W}(P) for every PE()P\in E(\mathbb{Q}).

Definition.

A Tamagawa trivial E(a4,a6)/E(a_{4},a_{6})/\mathbb{Q} is convenient if it satisfies one of the following:

  1. (1)

    We have that E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) is a minimal model, and that E()E(\mathbb{R}) has one connected component with

    a40and(α,){x:2a4x2+8a6xa42<0},a_{4}\leq 0\ \ \ {\text{a}nd}\ \ \ (\alpha,\infty)\subset\left\{x\in\mathbb{R}:2a_{4}x^{2}+8a_{6}x-a_{4}^{2}<0\right\},

    where α\alpha is the real root of x3+a4x+a6x^{3}+a_{4}x+a_{6}.

  2. (2)

    We have that E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) is a minimal model, and that E()E(\mathbb{R}) has two connected components with

    a40and(γ,β)(α,){x:2a4x2+8a6xa42<0},a_{4}\leq 0\ \ \ {\text{a}nd}\ \ \ (\gamma,\beta)\cup(\alpha,\infty)\subset\left\{x\in\mathbb{R}:2a_{4}x^{2}+8a_{6}x-a_{4}^{2}<0\right\},

    where γ<β<α\gamma<\beta<\alpha are the real roots of x3+a4x+a6x^{3}+a_{4}x+a_{6}.

Lemma 1.4.

If E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) is convenient, then for every PE()P\in E(\mathbb{Q}) we have h^(P)12hW(P).\widehat{h}(P)\geq\frac{1}{2}h_{W}(P).

As a corollary to Theorem 1.1, we show that convenient curves have a natural density using

(1.9) 𝒩c(X):=#{E(a4,a6)convenient: 0pt(E(a4,a6))X}.\mathcal{N}_{c}(X):=\#\{E(a_{4},a_{6})\ {\text{\rm convenient}}\ :\ 0pt(E(a_{4},a_{6}))\leq X\}.
Corollary 1.5.

We have

limX+𝒩c(X)𝒩(X)=12805748865(2+6)1830488π10PTam(1)=0.1679.\lim_{X\rightarrow+\infty}\frac{\mathcal{N}_{c}(X)}{\mathcal{N}(X)}=\frac{12805748865(2+\sqrt{6})}{1830488\pi^{10}}\cdot P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1)=0.1679\dots.
Example.

Table 4 illustrates Corollary 1.5.

XX 10510^{5} 10610^{6} 10710^{7} \dots \dots \infty
𝒩c(X)/𝒩(X)\mathcal{N}_{c}(X)/\mathcal{N}(X) 0.17410.1741\dots 0.16870.1687\dots 0.16780.1678\dots \dots 0.1679{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}0.1679\dots}
Table 4. Proportions of convenient curves

The results obtained here are not difficult to derive. They follow from an analysis of Tate’s algorithm. In Section 2 we provide a slight reformulation of the algorithm that is amenable for arithmetic statistics. In Section 3.1 we prove Theorems 1.1 and 1.3 using this analysis. In Section 3.2 we prove Lemma 1.4 by making use of standard facts about local height functions, and by adapting a clever device of Buhler, Gross and Zagier [5]. Finally, in Section 3.3 we derive Corollary 1.5 from Theorem 1.1 and Lemma 1.4.

Acknowledgements

The second author thanks the NSF (DMS-2002265) and the UVa Thomas Jefferson fund. The authors thank Jennifer Balakrishnan for useful discussions, and for pointing out the predicted average Tamagawa product.

2. Tate’s algorithm over \mathbb{Z}

Given a prime pp, Tate’s algorithm [14, 15] is a recursive procedure that determines the minimal model, conductor, Kodaira type, and the Tamagawa number cpc_{p} of an elliptic curve. There are eleven steps, often involving changes of variable that produce simpler pp-adic models. The algorithm can terminate at any of the first ten steps. Curves that reach the eleventh step are not pp-minimal. This eleventh step then applies the substitution (x,y)(p2x,p3y),(x,y)\to(p^{2}x,p^{3}y), giving a pp-integral model with discriminant that is reduced by a factor of p12.p^{12}. The resulting curve is inserted into the algorithm at step one, and the algorithm eventually terminates due to the nonvanishing of discriminants.

We offer a reformulation of the algorithm that is suited for arithmetic statistics. Our goal is to compute δp(K,n),\delta^{\prime}_{p}(K,n), the proportion of curves E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) that are pp-minimal, have Kodaira type K,K, and Tamagawa number cp=nc_{p}=n. We consider short Weierstrass curves E=E(a4,a6)E=E(a_{4},a_{6}), where a4,a6,a_{4},a_{6}\in\mathbb{Z}, with non-zero discriminant Δ=Δ(a4,a6):=16(4a43+27a62).\Delta=\Delta(a_{4},a_{6}):=-16(4a_{4}^{3}+27a_{6}^{2}). A model is pp-minimal if the pp-adic valuation of Δ\Delta is minimal among pp-integral models. The desired proportions, as well as some others, are summarized in tables in the Appendix.

2.1. Classification for primes p5p\geq 5

For primes p5,p\geq 5, the algorithm uses five or seven numbers, which we refer to as the Tate data for EE at pp (i.e. α4,α6,A4,A6,d\alpha_{4},\alpha_{6},A_{4},A_{6},d\in\mathbb{Z} and t,sp×t,s\in\mathbb{Z}_{p}^{\times}). The first five quantities are easily defined. We let d:=vp(Δ),d:=v_{p}(\Delta), and we let (note: vp(0):=+)v_{p}(0):=+\infty)

(2.1) α4:=vp(a4)andα6:=vp(a6).\alpha_{4}:=v_{p}(a_{4})\ \ \ {\text{\rm and}}\ \ \ \alpha_{6}:=v_{p}(a_{6}).

Moreover, if a40a_{4}\neq 0 or a60a_{6}\neq 0, then A4A_{4} and A6A_{6} are defined by

(2.2) a4=pα4A4anda6=pα6A6.a_{4}=p^{\alpha_{4}}A_{4}\ \ \ {\text{\rm and}}\ \ \ a_{6}=p^{\alpha_{6}}A_{6}.

We require the following pp-minimality criterion, whose proof defines the invariants ss and tt.

Lemma 2.1.

For primes p5,p\geq 5, E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) is non-minimal at pp if and only if α44\alpha_{4}\geq 4 and α66.\alpha_{6}\geq 6.

Proof.

Obviously, if α66\alpha_{6}\geq 6 and α44\alpha_{4}\geq 4, then the curve is non-minimal at pp. To justify the converse, we note that any counterexamples would satisfy vp(Δ)12v_{p}(\Delta)\geq 12 and

(2.3) vp(4a43)=vp(27a62)<vp(Δ),\displaystyle\ v_{p}(4a_{4}^{3})=v_{p}(27a_{6}^{2})<v_{p}(\Delta),

due to the required cancellation of pp-adic valuations. Furthermore, (2.3) implies that 2α6=3α42\alpha_{6}=3\alpha_{4}, which in turn implies that 3α63\mid\alpha_{6} and 2α42\mid\alpha_{4}.

For curves satisfying (2.3), we define invariants ss and tt which are often required for Tate’s algorithm. As vp(Δ)>0v_{p}(\Delta)>0, we have that 3A4-3A_{4} is a quadratic residue modulo p,p, and so there is a pp-adic unit tp×t\in\mathbb{Z}_{p}^{\times} with a4=3pα4t2.a_{4}=-3p^{\alpha_{4}}t^{2}. After a short calculation, which requires the correct choice of sign for tt, we obtain a pp-adic unit sp×s\in\mathbb{Z}_{p}^{\times} for which a6=2pα6t3+pdα6s.a_{6}=2p^{\alpha_{6}}t^{3}+p^{d-\alpha_{6}}s. The utility of ss and tt arises from the singular point (pα6/3t,0)(p^{\alpha_{6}/3}t,0) on

y2x33pα4t2x+2pα6t3(modpdα6).y^{2}\equiv x^{3}-3p^{\alpha_{4}}t^{2}x+2p^{\alpha_{6}}t^{3}\pmod{p^{d-\alpha_{6}}}.

Under the substitution xx+pα6/3tx\to x+p^{\alpha_{6}/3}t, it is mapped conveniently to (0,0)(0,0) on

(2.4) y2=x3+3pα6/3tx2+pdα6s.y^{2}=x^{3}+3p^{\alpha_{6}/3}tx^{2}+p^{d-\alpha_{6}}s.

This substitution does not change the discriminant, and one can apply Tate’s algorithm to this simpler model. For α6{0,3},\alpha_{6}\in\{0,3\}, the algorithm terminates at one of the first ten steps, implying the pp-minimality of the original model. The remaining cases satisfying (2.3) have α66\alpha_{6}\geq 6 and α44,\alpha_{4}\geq 4, thereby completing the proof. ∎

We now reformulate the algorithm (for p5p\geq 5) by identifying its steps with one of eleven disjoint possibilities for (α4,α6,d)(\alpha_{4},\alpha_{6},d). The first ten cases, which correspond to pp-minimal models, are in one-to-one correspondence with the possible Kodaira types. We compute δp(K,n)\delta^{\prime}_{p}(K,n) in each case. By Lemma 2.1, the eleventh case, where α44\alpha_{4}\geq 4 and α66,\alpha_{6}\geq 6, correspond to non-minimal short Weierstrass models. We follow the steps as ordered in Section IV.9 of [14], and so it would be convenient for the reader to have this reference readily available.

Case 1 (𝒅=𝟎\boldsymbol{d=0}). This case is Kodaira type I0,I_{0}, which has good reduction at p.p. As d=vp(Δ)=0,d=v_{p}(\Delta)=0, we have (a4,a6)(3w2,2w3)(modp),(a_{4},a_{6})\not\equiv(-3w^{2},2w^{3})\pmod{p}, for any w𝔽p.w\in\mathbb{F}_{p}. Therefore, there are p2pp^{2}-p choices of (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) out of p2p^{2} total possible pairs modulo pp, and so Tate’s algorithm gives δp(I0,1)=(p1)/p.\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I_{0},1)=(p-1)/p.

Case 2 (𝜶𝟒=𝜶𝟔=𝟎<𝒅\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}=\alpha_{6}=0<d}). This case is Kodaira type In1,I_{n\geq 1}, where 0<n=d=vp(Δ).0<n=d=v_{p}(\Delta). We require (2.3) (i.e. cancellation of pp-adic valuations in the discriminant), and we employ the discussion in the proof of Lemma 2.1, where (a4,a6)=(3t2,2t3+pds).(a_{4},a_{6})=(-3t^{2},2t^{3}+p^{d}s). If we let ε(n):=((1)n+3)/2,\varepsilon(n):=((-1)^{n}+3)/2, then the algorithm gives

cp:=n(1+(3tp))2+ε(n)(1(3tp))2.c_{p}:=\frac{n\left(1+\genfrac{(}{)}{}{}{3t}{p}\right)}{2}+\frac{\varepsilon(n)\left(1-\genfrac{(}{)}{}{}{3t}{p}\right)}{2}.

For each d1d\geq 1, we consider (a4,a6)(modpd+1)(a_{4},a_{6})\pmod{p^{d+1}}. Since pt,p\nmid t, there are pd+1pdp^{d+1}-p^{d} choices of t.t. We also have p1p-1 choices of s0(modp)s\not\equiv 0\pmod{p}. This gives us pd(p1)2p^{d}(p-1)^{2} choices of (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) out of p2d+2p^{2d+2} total possible pairs modulo pd+1{p^{d+1}}. If n>2,n>2, then half of these choices will have cp=nc_{p}=n, and the other half will have cp=1c_{p}=1 or 22. Therefore, we have that δp(I1,1)=(p1)2/p3,\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I_{1},1)=(p-1)^{2}/p^{3}, δp(I2,2)=(p1)2/p4,\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I_{2},2)=(p-1)^{2}/p^{4}, and δp(In3,n)=δp(In3,ε(n))=(p1)2/2pn+2.\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I_{n\geq 3},n)=\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I_{n\geq 3},\varepsilon(n))=(p-1)^{2}/2p^{n+2}.

Case 3 (𝜶𝟒𝟏 and 𝜶𝟔=𝟏\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}\geq 1\textbf{ and }\alpha_{6}=1}). This is Kodaira type II,II, with cp=1.c_{p}=1. There are pp choices of a4(modp2)a_{4}\pmod{p^{2}} and p1p-1 choices of a6(modp2),a_{6}\pmod{p^{2}}, giving p(p1)p(p-1) many options from p4p^{4} possibilities. Therefore, we have δp(II,1)=(p1)/p3.\delta_{p}^{\prime}(II,1)=(p-1)/p^{3}.

Case 4 (𝜶𝟒=𝟏 and 𝜶𝟔𝟐\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}=1\textbf{ and }\alpha_{6}\geq 2}). This case is Kodaira type III,III, where cp=2.c_{p}=2. There are p1p-1 choices of a4(modp2),a_{4}\pmod{p^{2}}, and 11 choice of a6(modp2).a_{6}\pmod{p^{2}}. As there are p4p^{4} many possible pairs, we have δp(III,2)=(p1)/p4.\delta_{p}^{\prime}(III,2)=(p-1)/p^{4}.

Case 5 (𝜶𝟒𝟐 and 𝜶𝟔=𝟐\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}\geq 2\textbf{ and }\alpha_{6}=2}). This case is Kodaira type IV,IV, where cp{1,3}.c_{p}\in\{1,3\}. As a6=p2A6,a_{6}=p^{2}A_{6}, Tate’s algorithm gives cp:=2+(A6p).c_{p}:=2+\left(\frac{A_{6}}{p}\right). There are pp choices of a4(modp3)a_{4}\pmod{p^{3}} and p1p-1 choices of a6(modp3),a_{6}\pmod{p^{3}}, and p6p^{6} possible pairs modulo p3{p^{3}}. Half of these pairs have cp=1c_{p}=1 (resp. cp=3c_{p}=3). Therefore, we have δp(IV,1)=δp(IV,3)=(p1)/2p5.\delta_{p}^{\prime}(IV,1)=\delta_{p}^{\prime}(IV,3)=(p-1)/2p^{5}.

Case 6 (𝜶𝟒𝟐,𝜶𝟔𝟑 and 𝒅=𝟔\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}\geq 2,\alpha_{6}\geq 3\textbf{ and }d=6}). This case is Kodaira type I0,I_{0}^{*}, where cp{1,2,4}c_{p}\in\{1,2,4\}. This step of Tate’s algorithm requires an auxiliary polynomial P(T),P(T), which we now define. Given a long Weierstrass model

(2.5) y2+a¯1xy+a¯3y=x3+a¯2x2+a¯4x+a¯6,y^{2}+\underline{a}_{1}xy+\underline{a}_{3}y=x^{3}+\underline{a}_{2}x^{2}+\underline{a}_{4}x+\underline{a}_{6},

(possibly after a change of variable) so that pa¯2,p\mid\underline{a}_{2}, p2a¯4,p^{2}\mid\underline{a}_{4}, and p3a¯6,p^{3}\mid\underline{a}_{6}, we define

(2.6) P(T):=T3+p1a2T2+p2a4T+p3a6.P(T):=T^{3}+p^{-1}a_{2}T^{2}+p^{-2}a_{4}T+p^{-3}a_{6}.

As we are working with short Weierstrass models, we have P(T)=T3+a4p2T+a6p3,P(T)=T^{3}+a_{4}p^{-2}T+a_{6}p^{-3}, and its discriminant is 24p6Δ2^{-4}p^{-6}\Delta. Since d=6d=6, we see that P(T)P(T) has distinct roots modulo pp. In this case, the algorithm states that the Tamagawa number is 11 more than the number of roots of P(T)P(T) in 𝔽p\mathbb{F}_{p} (the finite field with pp elements).

To calculate δp(I0,1),\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},1), we count the number of trace 0 separable cubics over 𝔽p.\mathbb{F}_{p}. We first consider the number of choices of P(T)P(T) which are irreducible, corresponding to cp=1c_{p}=1. There are p3pp^{3}-p elements of 𝔽p3\mathbb{F}_{p^{3}} not in 𝔽p\mathbb{F}_{p}, and 1/p1/p of those have trace 0. Thus there are (p21)/3(p^{2}-1)/3 possible choices for P(T)P(T) to be irreducible. We next consider the possibility that P(T)P(T) factors as Q(T)(Tα)Q(T)(T-\alpha), with Q(T)Q(T) an irreducible quadratic, corresponding to cp=2c_{p}=2. In this case α\alpha is uniquely determined by Q(T)Q(T) so that the trace of P(T)P(T) is 0. There are (p2p)/2(p^{2}-p)/2 irreducible quadratics modulo pp, and therefore (p2p)/2(p^{2}-p)/2 possible choices of P(T)P(T) with a single root in 𝔽p\mathbb{F}_{p}. Finally we consider the case that P(T)P(T) factors completely in 𝔽p\mathbb{F}_{p} with distinct roots, corresponding to the case cp=4c_{p}=4. There are (p3){p}\choose{3} ways of choosing 33 distinct roots in 𝔽p\mathbb{F}_{p}, and 1/p1/p of those have trace 0. Thus, there are (p1)(p2)/6(p-1)(p-2)/6 choices for P(T)P(T) in this case. There are p3p^{3} total possible choices of a4(modp3)a_{4}\pmod{p^{3}} and p4p^{4} total possible choices of a6(modp4).a_{6}\pmod{p^{4}}. Therefore, we find that δp(I0,1)=(p21)/3p7,\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},1)=(p^{2}-1)/3p^{7}, δp(I0,2)=(p1)/2p6,\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},2)=(p-1)/2p^{6}, and δp(I0,4)=(p1)(p2)/6p7.\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},4)=(p-1)(p-2)/6p^{7}.

Case 7 (𝜶𝟒=𝟐,𝜶𝟔=𝟑 and 𝒅>𝟔\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}=2,\ \alpha_{6}=3\textbf{ and }d>6}). This case is Kodaira type In1I^{*}_{n\geq 1} with cp{2,4},c_{p}\in\{2,4\}, where 0<n:=d6.0<n:=d-6. We employ model (2.4), where a4=3p2t2a_{4}=-3p^{2}\,t^{2} and a6=2p3t3+pd3s.a_{6}=2p^{3}t^{3}+p^{d-3}s. Tate’s algorithm requires the polynomial P(T)P(T) defined in (2.6), as well as an additional auxiliary polynomial which we denote by R(Y).R(Y). Given a long Weierstrass model (2.5) (possibly after a change of variable) so that p2a¯3,p^{2}\mid\underline{a}_{3}, and p4a¯6,p^{4}\mid\underline{a}_{6}, we define

(2.7) R(Y):=Y2+p2a3Yp4a6.R(Y):=Y^{2}+p^{-2}a_{3}Y-p^{-4}a_{6}.

As our curves are in short form, we have P(T)=T3+3tT2+pns,P(T)=T^{3}+3tT^{2}+p^{n}s, and R(Y)=Y2pn1s.R(Y)=Y^{2}-p^{n-1}s. The Tamagawa number cpc_{p} depends on P(T)P(T) and R(Y)R(Y). If nn is odd, then we consider the roots of R(Y)R(Y). We make the substitution pn+1R(pn12Y)=Y2sp^{-n+1}R(p^{\frac{n-1}{2}}Y)=Y^{2}-s which corresponds to the application of the sub-procedure of Step 77 of Tate’s algorithm nn times. The number of roots depends on whether or not ss is a quadratic residue. The algorithm gives cp:=3+(sp).c_{p}:=3+\left(\frac{s}{p}\right). If nn is even, then we consider the number of roots of P(T)P(T). We make the substitution pnP(pn2T)3tT2+s(modp)p^{-n}P(p^{\frac{n}{2}}T)\equiv 3tT^{2}+s\pmod{p} which corresponds to nn steps through the sub-procedure of Step 77 of Tate’s algorithm. The number of roots depends on whether or not s/3t-s/3t is a quadratic residue. The algorithm gives that cp:=3+(s/3tp).c_{p}:=3+\left(\frac{-s/3t}{p}\right).

To calculate the proportion of curves satisfying this condition for a given n1,n\geq 1, we note that (a4,a6)(modpn+4)(a_{4},a_{6})\pmod{p^{n+4}} is determined by any choice of t(modpn+2)t\pmod{p^{n+2}} and s(modp),s\pmod{p}, where pst.p\nmid st. Half of the possible choices of ss correspond to each cpc_{p}. Therefore, we obtain δp(In,2)=δp(In,4)=(p1)2/2p7+n.\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I^{*}_{n},2)=\delta_{p}^{\prime}(I^{*}_{n},4)=(p-1)^{2}/2p^{7+n}.

Case 8 (𝜶𝟒𝟑 and 𝜶𝟔=𝟒\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}\geq 3\textbf{ and }\alpha_{6}=4}). This is Kodaira type IVIV^{*}, with cp{1,3}c_{p}\in\{1,3\}. As a6=p4A6,a_{6}=p^{4}A_{6}, the algorithm gives cp:=2+(A6p).c_{p}:=2+\left(\frac{A_{6}}{p}\right). There are p2p^{2} choices of a4(modp5)a_{4}\pmod{p^{5}} and p1p-1 choices of a6(modp5)a_{6}\pmod{p^{5}}, and there are p10p^{10} possible pairs. Half of these pairs have cp=1c_{p}=1 (resp. cp=3c_{p}=3), and so we obtain δp(IV,1)=δp(IV,3)=(p1)/2p8.\delta_{p}^{\prime}(IV^{*},1)=\delta_{p}^{\prime}(IV^{*},3)=(p-1)/2p^{8}.

Case 9 (𝜶𝟒=𝟑 and 𝜶𝟔𝟓\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}=3\textbf{ and }\alpha_{6}\geq 5}). This case is Kodaira type III,III^{*}, where cp=2c_{p}=2. There are p(p1)p(p-1) many choices of a4(modp5),a_{4}\pmod{p^{5}}, and 11 choice of a6(modp5).a_{6}\pmod{p^{5}}. As there are p10p^{10} possible pairs modulo p5,{p^{5}}, we obtain δp(III,2)=(p1)/p9.\delta_{p}^{\prime}(III^{*},2)=(p-1)/p^{9}.

Case 10 (𝜶𝟒𝟒 and 𝜶𝟔=𝟓\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}\geq 4\textbf{ and }\alpha_{6}=5}). This case is Kodaira type II,II^{*}, where cp=1c_{p}=1. This case depends on (a4,a6)(modp6)(a_{4},a_{6})\pmod{p^{6}}. There are p2p^{2} choices of a4(modp6)a_{4}\pmod{p^{6}} and p1p-1 choices of a6(modp6).a_{6}\pmod{p^{6}}. As there are p12p^{12} possible pairs modulo p6,{p^{6}}, we obtain δp(II,1)=(p1)/p10.\delta_{p}^{\prime}(II^{*},1)=(p-1)/p^{10}.

Case 11 (𝜶𝟒𝟒 and 𝜶𝟔𝟔\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}\geq 4\textbf{ and }\alpha_{6}\geq 6}). As the model is not minimal, the algorithm replaces a4a_{4} and a6a_{6} with a4/p4a_{4}/p^{4} and a6/p6a_{6}/p^{6} respectively. One repeats these substitutions until one obtains a model which is one of the ten cases above.

2.2. Classification for p=3p=3

The Tate data for p=3p=3 also consists of five or seven numbers. The first five (i.e. α4,α6,A4,A6,\alpha_{4},\alpha_{6},A_{4},A_{6}, and dd) are defined by (2.1) and (2.2). The next lemma classifies those E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) that are not 3-minimal, and its proof defines invariants ss and tt in some of the cases where further invariants are required.

Lemma 2.2.

The curve E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) is not 3-minimal if and only if (α4,α6,d)(\alpha_{4},\alpha_{6},d) satisfies one of the following conditions:

  1. (1)

    We have that α44\alpha_{4}\geq 4 and α66.\alpha_{6}\geq 6.

  2. (2)

    We have that α4=α6=3\alpha_{4}=\alpha_{6}=3 and d12d\geq 12.

Proof.

Obviously, E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) is not minimal at 33 when (1) holds. Therefore, to prove the lemma, suppose that E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) does not satisfy (1) and is not 3-minimal. Then, we have v3(Δ)12v_{3}(\Delta)\geq 12 and

(2.8) v3(4a43)=v3(27a62)<v3(Δ),v_{3}(4a_{4}^{3})=v_{3}(27a_{6}^{2})<v_{3}(\Delta),

due to the necessary cancellation of 33-adic valuations. Furthermore, (2.8) implies that 2α6+3=3α42\alpha_{6}+3=3\alpha_{4}, which in turn implies that 3α63\mid\alpha_{6} and α4\alpha_{4} is odd. Arguing precisely as in the previous subsection, we find that for any curve satisfying (2.8) there are 33-adic units s,t3×s,t\in\mathbb{Z}_{3}^{\times} for which

a4=3α4t2anda6=23α6t3+3dα63s.a_{4}=-3^{\alpha_{4}}t^{2}\ \ \ \text{and}\ \ \ a_{6}=2\cdot 3^{\alpha_{6}}t^{3}+3^{d-\alpha_{6}-3}s.

The substitution xx+3α6/3tx\to x+3^{\alpha_{6}/3}t returns the model

(2.9) y2=x3+31+α6/3tx2+3dα63s,y^{2}=x^{3}+3^{1+\alpha_{6}/3}t\cdot x^{2}+3^{d-\alpha_{6}-3}s,

which has the same discriminant. The assumption that E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) does not satisfy (1) implies that α6{0,3}\alpha_{6}\in\{0,3\}. For α6=0\alpha_{6}=0, the algorithm applied to this model terminates at one of the first 77 steps, and so the original model is 33-minimal. However, if α4=α6=3,\alpha_{4}=\alpha_{6}=3, and d12,d\geq 12, we see that (2.9) is not minimal. The additional substitution (x,y)(9x,27y)(x,y)\to(9x,27y) returns the reduced model

(2.10) y2=x3+tx2+3d12s,y^{2}=x^{3}+tx^{2}+3^{d-12}s,

with smaller discriminant 312Δ.3^{-12}\Delta. This completes the proof of the lemma. ∎

We also require two further invariants ss and tt when α6{0,3},\alpha_{6}\in\{0,3\}, and vp(4a43)vp(27a62)=v3(Δ).v_{p}(4a_{4}^{3})\geq v_{p}(27a_{6}^{2})=v_{3}(\Delta). We note that if vp(4a43)=vp(27a62)=d,v_{p}(4a_{4}^{3})=v_{p}(27a_{6}^{2})=d, then A41(mod3).A_{4}\equiv 1\pmod{3}. A straightforward calculation with Hensel’s lemma shows that there is a 33-adic unit t3×,t\in\mathbb{Z}_{3}^{\times}, and s{0,±1}s\in\{0,\pm 1\} for which a6=3α6t3+3α6/3a4t+3α6+1s.a_{6}=3^{\alpha_{6}}t^{3}+3^{\alpha_{6}/3}a_{4}t+3^{\alpha_{6}+1}s. The substitution xx3tx\to x-3^{\ell}t gives the new model

(2.11) y2=x33α6/3+1tx2+(a4+323α6+1t2)x+3α6+1s.y^{2}=x^{3}-3^{\alpha_{6}/3+1}t\cdot x^{2}+(a_{4}+3^{\frac{2}{3}\alpha_{6}+1}t^{2})\cdot x+3^{\alpha_{6}+1}s.

In this situation we shall apply the algorithm to this model.

As in the previous subsection, we reformulate the algorithm for p=3p=3 by identifying its steps with one of a number of disjoint possibilities for (α4,α6,d)(\alpha_{4},\alpha_{6},d). Unlike the situation for primes p5p\geq 5, a few further cases arise due to the fact that 33-minimal models in short Weierstrass form do not always exist for E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}). These extra cases are designated below with an *, and we let δ^3(K,n)\widehat{\delta}_{3}(K,n) be the proportion of curves which fall into these cases.

Case 1 (𝜶𝟒=𝟎\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}=0}). This case is Kodaira type I0I_{0}, when we have good reduction at p=3.p=3. We have α4=0\alpha_{4}=0 and v3(Δ)=0.v_{3}(\Delta)=0. There are 22 choices for a4a_{4} modulo 33, and so δ3(I0,1)=2/3.\delta_{3}^{\prime}(I_{0},1)=2/3.

Case 1* (𝜶𝟒=𝜶𝟔=𝟑, and 𝒅=𝟏𝟐\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}=\alpha_{6}=3,\textbf{ and }d=12}). This case is also for Kodaira type I0I_{0}, but only arises in situations where the original EE is not 33-minimal. Therefore, we employ model (2.10) per the discussion above. Namely, we have a4=33t2a_{4}=-3^{3}t^{2}, and a6=233t3+36sa_{6}=2\cdot 3^{3}t^{3}+3^{6}s, with 3st,3\nmid st, and so the change of variable reduces EE to the 33-minimal model y2=x3+tx2+s,y^{2}=x^{3}+tx^{2}+s, which has discriminant 16(4t3s+27s2)0(mod3).-16(4t^{3}s+27s^{2})\not\equiv 0\pmod{3}. There are 1818 choices for tt modulo 2727 with t0(mod3)t\not\equiv 0\pmod{3}, and for each choice of tt, there are 22 choices of ss modulo 33. Together, these determine a4a_{4} modulo 363^{6} and a6a_{6} modulo 373^{7} Combining these observations, we obtain δ^3(I0,1)=4/311.\widehat{\delta}_{3}(I_{0},1)=4/3^{11}.

Case 2 (None). This case is for Kodaira types In1.I_{n\geq 1}. Since (x+c)3=x3+3cx2+,(x+c)^{3}=x^{3}+3cx^{2}+\dots, the substitutions xx+c,x\to x+c, with cc\in\mathbb{Z}, always produces models with 3b2,3\mid b_{2}, where b2:=a¯12+4a¯2b_{2}:=\underline{a}_{1}^{2}+4\underline{a}_{2} for long models as in (2.5). Tate’s algorithm, which employs b2b_{2}, bypasses these cases for short models when p=3p=3, and so we have δ3(In1,c3)=0.\delta_{3}^{\prime}(I_{n\geq 1},c_{3})=0.

Case 2* (𝜶𝟒=𝜶𝟔=𝟑 and 𝒅>𝟏𝟐\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}=\alpha_{6}=3\textbf{ and }d>12}). This case concerns Kodaira types In1I_{n\geq 1}, when EE is not 33-minimal. Following the discussion above, we employ (2.10), where a4=33t2a_{4}=-3^{3}t^{2} and a6=233t3+3d6s,a_{6}=2\cdot 3^{3}t^{3}+3^{d-6}s, with 3st3\nmid st. The new model y2=x3+tx2+3d12sy^{2}=x^{3}+tx^{2}+3^{d-12}s is 33-minimal, and has discriminant 16(4t33d12s+32d24s2)0(mod3d12).-16(4t^{3}3^{d-12}s+3^{2d-24}s^{2})\equiv 0\pmod{3^{d-12}}. Tate’s algorithm gives type InI_{n}, with n=d12,n=d-12, the 33-adic valuation of this discriminant. Moreover, the Tamagawa number c3c_{3} depends on tt modulo 3,3, and we find that

c3:=n(1+(t3))2+ε(n)(1(t3))2.c_{3}:=\frac{n\left(1+\genfrac{(}{)}{}{}{t}{3}\right)}{2}+\frac{\varepsilon(n)\left(1-\genfrac{(}{)}{}{}{t}{3}\right)}{2}.

Here ε(n)\varepsilon(n) is as in Case 2 of the previous subsection. If we fix n1,n\geq 1, and t(mod3)t\pmod{3}, then a4(mod34)a_{4}\pmod{3^{4}} is uniquely determined. Furthermore, for each choice of a4a_{4}, there are 22 choices of a6(mod3n+7)a_{6}\pmod{3^{n+7}}. Combining these facts, we obtain δ^3(I1,1)=4/312,\widehat{\delta}_{3}(I_{1},1)=4/3^{12}, δ^3(I2,2)=4/313,\widehat{\delta}_{3}(I_{2},2)=4/3^{13}, and δ^3(In3,c3)=2/3n+11.\widehat{\delta}_{3}(I_{n\geq 3},c_{3})=2/3^{n+11}.

Case 3. This case is Kodaira type II,II, where c3=1.c_{3}=1. The following three possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α41\alpha_{4}\geq 1 and α6=1.\alpha_{6}=1.

  2. (ii)

    We have α41,α6=0\alpha_{4}\geq 1,\alpha_{6}=0, d=3,d=3, and s0.s\neq 0. Note that ss is from model (2.11).

  3. (iii)

    We have α4=1,α6=0\alpha_{4}=1,\alpha_{6}=0, and d=4.d=4.

There are 66 pairs (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) modulo 99 satisfying (i), and so their proportion is 6/81.6/81. For curves satisfying (ii), we use model (2.11). In this situation we have a6=3α6t3+3α6/3a4t+3α6+1s.a_{6}=3^{\alpha_{6}}t^{3}+3^{\alpha_{6}/3}a_{4}t+3^{\alpha_{6}+1}s. We have 22 choices for a40,3(mod9)a_{4}\equiv 0,3\pmod{9}, 22 choices for t±1(mod3)t\equiv\pm 1\pmod{3}, and 22 choices for s=±1,s=\pm 1, which together determine a6a_{6} modulo 99. Therefore their proportion is 8/81.8/81. For curves satisfying (iii), we use model (2.9). We have a4=3t2a_{4}=-3t^{2} and a6=2t3+3s.a_{6}=2t^{3}+3s. There are 22 choices each for t,s±1(mod3),t,s\equiv\pm 1\pmod{3}, which together determine (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) modulo 99. Therefore, their proportion is 4/81.4/81. Combining these observations, we obtain δ3(II,1)=29.\delta_{3}^{\prime}(II,1)=\frac{2}{9}.

Case 4. This case is Kodaira type III,III, where c3=2c_{3}=2. The following two possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α4=1\alpha_{4}=1 and α62.\alpha_{6}\geq 2.

  2. (ii)

    We have α41,α6=0\alpha_{4}\geq 1,\alpha_{6}=0, d=3,d=3, and s=0.s=0. Note that ss is from model (2.11).

There are 22 pairs (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) modulo 9{9} satisfying (i). For curves satisfying (ii), we use model (2.11). In this situation, we have 22 choices for a40a_{4}\equiv 0 or 3(mod9)3\pmod{9}, and 22 choices for t±1(mod3),t\equiv\pm 1\pmod{3}, which together determine a6a_{6} modulo 99. Hence, there are 44 pairs (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) modulo 9{9} satisfying (ii). Overall, the 6 pairs (a4,a6){(3,0),(6,0),(0,±1),(3,±4)(mod9)}(a_{4},a_{6})\in\left\{(3,0),(6,0),(0,\pm 1),(3,\pm 4)\pmod{9}\right\}, chosen from 8181 possibilities, gives δ3(III,2)=2/27.\delta_{3}^{\prime}(III,2)=2/27.

Case 5. This case is Kodaira type IV,IV, where c3{1,3}.c_{3}\in\{1,3\}. The following two possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α42\alpha_{4}\geq 2 and α6=2.\alpha_{6}=2.

  2. (ii)

    We have α4=1,\alpha_{4}=1, α6=0,\alpha_{6}=0, and d=5.d=5.

For condition (i), Tate’s algorithm gives c3:=2+(A63).c_{3}:=2+\left(\frac{A_{6}}{3}\right). For condition (ii), the algorithm gives c3:=2+(s3),c_{3}:=2+\left(\frac{s}{3}\right), where ss corresponds to model (2.9).

It is simple to determine the proportions of curves in these cases. In case of (i), we have 9a4,9\mid a_{4}, and 1 choice of a6a_{6} modulo 2727 for each c3c_{3}, giving a proportion of 353^{-5} each of the two possible Tamagawa numbers. Curves satisfying (ii) are cases of (2.9), and so we have a4=3t2a_{4}=-3t^{2} and a6=2t3+9s.a_{6}=2t^{3}+9s. There are 66 choices tt modulo 9,9, and one choice of ss modulo 33 for each c3c_{3}. These together determine the 66 choices of a4a_{4} and a6a_{6} modulo 2727 which fall under this set of conditions for each c3c_{3}. Combining these observations, we obtain δ3(IV,1)=δ3(IV,3)=1/81.\delta_{3}^{\prime}(IV,1)=\delta_{3}^{\prime}(IV,3)=1/81.

Case 6. This case is Kodaira type I0,I_{0}^{*}, where c3{1,2,4}.c_{3}\in\{1,2,4\}. The following two possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α4=2\alpha_{4}=2 and α63.\alpha_{6}\geq 3.

  2. (ii)

    We have α4=1,\alpha_{4}=1, α6=0,\alpha_{6}=0, and d=6.d=6.

In each case, c3c_{3} is 11 more than the number of roots of the polynomial P(T)P(T) defined in (2.6), possibly after a change of variable. Assuming (i), we have P(T)=T3+A4T+pα63A6,P(T)=T^{3}+A_{4}T+p^{\alpha_{6}-3}A_{6}, This polynomial has 11 root modulo 33 if A41(mod3)A_{4}\equiv 1\pmod{3}, 33 distinct roots if A41(mod3)A_{4}\equiv-1\pmod{3} and α6>3\alpha_{6}>3, and 0 roots modulo 33 if A41(mod3)A_{4}\equiv-1\pmod{3} and α6=3.\alpha_{6}=3. For curves satisfying (ii), we define P(T)P(T) using model (2.9). We have a4=3t2a_{4}=-3t^{2} and a6=2t3+27s,a_{6}=2t^{3}+27s, where ss and tt are 33-adic units, and P(T)=T3+tT2+s.P(T)=T^{3}+tT^{2}+s. This polynomial has 11 root modulo 33 if ts(mod3),t\equiv s\pmod{3}, and 0 roots modulo 33 if ts(mod3).t\not\equiv s\pmod{3}. Each (a4,a6)(mod81)(a_{4},a_{6})\pmod{81} corresponds to a pair tt modulo 27{27} and ss modulo 33. Therefore, we have that cp=1c_{p}=1 for 2424 pairs of (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) modulo 81{81} (66 pairs satisfying (i), and 1818 satisfying (ii)) cp=2c_{p}=2 for 2727 pairs of (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) modulo 8181 (99 pairs satisfying (i), and 1818 satisfying (ii)), and cp=4c_{p}=4 for 33 pairs of (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) modulo 8181 (all satisfying condition (i)). Hence, we have δ3(I0,1)=8/37,\delta_{3}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},1)=8/3^{7}, δ3(I0,2)=1/35,\delta_{3}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},2)=1/3^{5}, and δ3(I0,4)=1/37.\delta_{3}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},4)=1/3^{7}.

Case 7 (𝜶𝟒𝟏,𝜶𝟔=𝟎 and 𝒅𝟕\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}\geq 1,\alpha_{6}=0\textbf{ and }{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}d\geq 7}}). This case is Kodaira type In1,I^{*}_{n\geq 1}, with c3{2,4},c_{3}\in\{2,4\}, where 0<n:=d6.0<n:=d-6. We use model (2.9), and define the auxiliary polynomials P(T)P(T) and R(Y)R(Y) as in (2.6) and (2.7). We have that P(T)=T3+tT2+3nsP(T)=T^{3}+tT^{2}+3^{n}s and R(Y)=Y23n1sR(Y)=Y^{2}-3^{n-1}s.

If dd is odd, then we have

3n+1R(3n12Y)Y2s(mod3),3^{-n+1}R(3^{\frac{n-1}{2}}Y)\equiv Y^{2}-s\pmod{3},

which follows from the application of the sub-procedure in Step 7 of the algorithm nn times. We have c3:=4c_{3}:=4 when s1(mod3)s\equiv 1\pmod{3} (so that R(Y)R(Y) factors over 3\mathbb{Z}_{3}), and c3:=2c_{3}:=2 when s=1(mod3)s=-1\pmod{3} (so that R(Y)R(Y) does not factor).

If dd is even, then we have that 3nP(3n2T)tT2+s(mod3)3^{-n}P(3^{\frac{n}{2}}T)\equiv tT^{2}+s\pmod{3}, which corresponds to nn steps through the sub-procedure of Step 7 of Tate’s Algorithm. We have c3:=4c_{3}:=4 if st(mod3)s\equiv-t\pmod{3} (so that P(T)P(T) factors completely), and c3:=2c_{3}:=2 if st(mod3)s\equiv t\pmod{3} (so that P(T)P(T) does not factor completely).

For each n1n\geq 1 and each c3{2,4}c_{3}\in\{2,4\}, we have 23n+22\cdot 3^{n+2} choices for tt modulo 3n+33^{n+3} and 11 choice of ss modulo 33 (depending on c3c_{3} and tt). This determines 23n+22\cdot 3^{n+2} pairs (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) modulo 3n+43^{n+4} corresponding to Kodaira type InI^{*}_{n} with the chosen Tamagawa number c3,c_{3}, out of a total of 32n+83^{2n+8} pairs modulo 3n+4.3^{n+4}. Hence, Tate’s algorithm gives δ3(In,2)=2/3n+6,\delta_{3}^{\prime}(I_{n}^{*},2)=2/3^{n+6}, and δ3(In,4)=2/3n+6.\delta_{3}^{\prime}(I_{n}^{*},4)=2/3^{n+6}.

Case 8. This case is Kodaira type IVIV^{*}, where c3{1,3}.c_{3}\in\{1,3\}. The following two possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α43\alpha_{4}\geq 3 and α6=4.\alpha_{6}=4.

  2. (ii)

    We have α43,α6=3\alpha_{4}\geq 3,\alpha_{6}=3, d=9,d=9, and s0.s\neq 0. Note that ss is from model (2.11).

Tate’s algorithm gives c3:=2+(A63)c_{3}:=2+\left(\frac{A_{6}}{3}\right) under condition (i), and c3:=2+(s3)c_{3}:=2+\left(\frac{s}{3}\right) under condition (ii). For condition (i), we have 11 choice for a4a_{4} modulo 27,27, and one choice for a6a_{6} modulo 353^{5} for each of the two possible values of c3c_{3} (i.e. a proportion of 1/381/3^{8}). For condition (ii), there are 22 choices for a40a_{4}\equiv 0 or 27(mod34),27\pmod{3^{4}}, 22 choices for t0(mod3),t\not\equiv 0\pmod{3}, and 11 choice of s0s\neq 0 for each c3.c_{3}. Together, these determines a6a_{6} modulo 35.3^{5}. These pairs (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) occur with proportion 4/394/3^{9} for each of the two possible values for c3.c_{3}. Therefore, we obtain δ3(IV,1)=δ3(IV,3)=7/39.\delta_{3}^{\prime}(IV^{*},1)=\delta_{3}^{\prime}(IV^{*},3)=7/3^{9}.

Case 9. This case is Kodaira type III,III^{*}, where c3=2.c_{3}=2. The following three possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α4=3\alpha_{4}=3 and α65.\alpha_{6}\geq 5.

  2. (ii)

    We have α43,α6=3\alpha_{4}\geq 3,\alpha_{6}=3, d=9,d=9, and s=0.s=0. Note that ss is from model (2.11).

  3. (iii)

    We have α4=α6=3\alpha_{4}=\alpha_{6}=3 and d=10.d=10.

The proportion of curves satisfying (i) is 2/392/3^{9}. For curves satisfying (ii), we use (2.11). In this situation, we find that a40,27(mod34)a_{4}\equiv 0,27\pmod{3^{4}}. Thus, there are 2 choices of a4a_{4} modulo 34,3^{4}, and 2 choices for t±1(mod3).t\equiv\pm 1\pmod{3}. These choices determine a6a_{6} modulo 35.3^{5}. Therefore, the proportion of curves satisfying this set of conditions is 4/39.4/3^{9}. For curves satisfying (iii), we use (2.9). In this situation, we have a4=27t2a_{4}=-27t^{2} and a6=54t3+81s.a_{6}=54t^{3}+81s. There are 22 choices each for t,s±1(mod3).t,s\equiv\pm 1\pmod{3}. These choices together determine a4a_{4} modulo 343^{4} and a6a_{6} modulo 353^{5}. Therefore, the proportion of these curves is 4/39.4/3^{9}. Combining these observations, we obtain δ3(III,2)=10/39.\delta_{3}^{\prime}(III^{*},2)=10/3^{9}.

Case 10. This case is Kodaira type II,II^{*}, where c3=1.c_{3}=1. The following two possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α44\alpha_{4}\geq 4 and α6=5.\alpha_{6}=5.

  2. (ii)

    We have α4=α6=3\alpha_{4}=\alpha_{6}=3, and d=11.d=11.

The proportion of curves satisfying (i) is 2/310.2/3^{10}. For curves satisfying (ii), we use model (2.9). In this situation, there are 66 choices for tt modulo 99 so that t0(mod3),t\neq 0\pmod{3}, and 22 choices for s±1(mod3).s\equiv\pm 1\pmod{3}. These choices together determine a4a_{4} modulo 353^{5} and a6a_{6} modulo 36.3^{6}. Therefore, the proportion of pairs (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) satisfying these conditions is 4/3104/3^{10} Combining these observations, we obtain δ3(II,1)=2/39.\delta_{3}^{\prime}(II^{*},1)=2/3^{9}.

Case 11 (𝜶𝟒𝟒 and 𝜶𝟔𝟔\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}\geq 4\textbf{ and }\alpha_{6}\geq 6}). As the model is not minimal, the algorithm replaces a4a_{4} and a6a_{6} with a4/34a_{4}/3^{4} and a6/36a_{6}/3^{6} respectively. One repeats these substitutions until one obtains a model which is one of the ten cases above.

2.3. Classification for p=2p=2

The Tate data for p=2p=2 also consists of five or seven numbers. The first five (i.e. α4,α6,A4,A6,\alpha_{4},\alpha_{6},A_{4},A_{6}, and dd) are defined by (2.1) and (2.2). The next lemma classifies those E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) that are not 2-minimal, and its proof defines invariants ss and tt in some of the cases where these invariants are required.

Lemma 2.3.

A curve E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) is not 2-minimal if and only if (a4,a6,d)(a_{4},a_{6},d) satisfies one of the following conditions:

  1. (1)

    We have that α44\alpha_{4}\geq 4 and α66.\alpha_{6}\geq 6.

  2. (2)

    We have that α44\alpha_{4}\geq 4, a616(mod64)a_{6}\equiv 16\pmod{64}.

  3. (3)

    We have (a4,a6)(5,6)(mod8)(a_{4},a_{6})\equiv(5,6)\pmod{8}, where d12d\geq 12

Proof.

Obviously, E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) is not minimal at 22 when (1) holds. Now, suppose that E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) does not satisfy (1) and is not 2-minimal. Then, we have v2(Δ)12v_{2}(\Delta)\geq 12. This implies that either a42a_{4}\geq 2 and a64,a_{6}\geq 4, or

(2.12) v2(4a43)=v2(27a62)<v2(Δ),v_{2}(4a_{4}^{3})=v_{2}(27a_{6}^{2})<v_{2}(\Delta),

due to the necessary cancellation of 22-adic valuations. If α4=2\alpha_{4}=2 (resp. 33) and α64,\alpha_{6}\geq 4, then we find that Tate’s algorithm terminates in Step 7 (resp. Step 8). If α44\alpha_{4}\geq 4 and a648a_{6}\equiv 48 or 32(mod64),32\pmod{64}, then Tate’s algorithm terminates at Step 10. However, if a616(mod64),a_{6}\equiv 16\pmod{64}, then we have a4=4A4a_{4}=4A_{4} a6=16+2ks,a_{6}=16+2^{k}s, where either s=0s=0 or ss odd, and k6.k\geq 6. The substitution (x,y)(4x,8y+4),(x,y)\to(4x,8y+4), reduces the equation of the curve to

(2.13) y2+y=x3+A4x+2k6s,y^{2}+y=x^{3}+A_{4}x+2^{k-6}s,

which has discriminant 212Δ2^{-12}\Delta. Since α6=4\alpha_{6}=4, we have v2(Δ)=12v_{2}(\Delta)=12, and so this model is 22-minimal, giving (2).

If E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) satisfies (2.12), then 2α6=3α4+22\alpha_{6}=3\alpha_{4}+2, which in turn implies that α4\alpha_{4} is even. We find that α4{0,2},\alpha_{4}\in\{0,2\}, however the possible case that α4=2\alpha_{4}=2 and α6=4\alpha_{6}=4 was already considered above. If α4=0,\alpha_{4}=0, then α6=1.\alpha_{6}=1. For any curve of this type satisfying (2.12) with v2(Δ)12,v_{2}(\Delta)\geq 12, we find 26Δ=A43+27A62A4+30(mod8).-2^{-6}\Delta=A_{4}^{3}+27A_{6}^{2}\equiv A_{4}+3\equiv 0\pmod{8}. Thus, a43(mod8),a_{4}\equiv-3\pmod{8}, and there is some tZ2t\in Z_{2} so that a4=3t2a_{4}=-3t^{2}. Moreover, there is a choice of sign of tt so that a6=2t3+2d6s,a_{6}=2t^{3}+2^{d-6}s, for some 22-adic unit ss. If t1(mod4)t\equiv 1\pmod{4} (so that a62(mod8)a_{6}\equiv 2\pmod{8}), then we find that Tate’s algorithm terminates in either step 66 or 77. However if t3(mod4)t\equiv 3\pmod{4} (so that a66(mod8)),a_{6}\equiv 6\pmod{8}), then the substitution (x,y)(4x+t,8y+1)(x,y)\to(4x+t,8y+1) reduces the equation of the curve.

(2.14) y2+xy=x3+3t14x2+2d12sy^{2}+xy=x^{3}+\frac{3t-1}{4}x^{2}+2^{d-12}s

This completes the proof of the lemma, as this situation is case (3). ∎

Our analysis of Tate’s algorithm requires invariants k,s,tk,s,t, and vv whenever (2.12) is satisfied with α4=0\alpha_{4}=0 and v2(Δ)8.v_{2}(\Delta)\geq 8. As in the proof above, this implies that (a4,a6)(1,2)(mod4).(a_{4},a_{6})\equiv(1,2)\pmod{4}. If dd is even, we set v=2d62,v=2^{\frac{d-6}{2}}, and otherwise we set v=0.v=0. Then there is a unique t2t\in\mathbb{Z}_{2} with ta6/2(mod4),t\equiv a_{6}/2\pmod{4}, so that a4=3t2+2va_{4}=-3t^{2}+2v. This uses the fact that d=8d=8 if and only if a41(mod8).a_{4}\equiv 1\pmod{8}. A short calculation gives numbers ss and k,k, where a6=2t32vt+v2+2ks,a_{6}=2t^{3}-2vt+v^{2}+2^{k}s, with either s=0,s=0, or ss is odd and kd6.k\geq d-6. We find that k>d6k>d-6 if dd is even (so that v0v\neq 0), and k=d6k=d-6 if dd is odd (so that v=0v=0). After the substitution (x,y)(x+t,y+1+v)(x,y)\to(x+t,y+1+v), we obtain

(2.15) y2+2xy+2vy=x3+(3t1)x2+2ks.y^{2}+2xy+2vy=x^{3}+(3t-1)x^{2}+2^{k}s.

As in the previous subsections, we reformulate the algorithm for p=2p=2 by identifying its steps with suitable disjoint possibilities for the Tate data a4,a6,α4,α6,d,a_{4},a_{6},\alpha_{4},\alpha_{6},d, and kk. Unlike the case where p5p\geq 5, a further cases arise due to the fact that 22-minimal models in short Weierstrass form do not always exist for EE. These special cases are designated below with an *, and we define δ^2(K,n)\widehat{\delta}_{2}(K,n) to be the proportion of curves which fall into these cases.

Case 1 (None). This case is Kodaira type I0I_{0}, which has good reduction at p=2.p=2. This case does not occur in a first pass through the algorithm since 16Δ16\mid\Delta. Therefore, we have δ2(I0,1)=0.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{0},1)=0.

Case 1*. This is Kodaira type I0I_{0} with c2=1,c_{2}=1, where EE is not 22-minimal. The two possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α44\alpha_{4}\geq 4 and a616(mod64).a_{6}\equiv 16\pmod{64}.

  2. (ii)

    We have (a4,a6)(5,6)(mod8),(a_{4},a_{6})\equiv(5,6)\pmod{8}, and d=12.d=12.

Under the condition (i), we use the model (2.13). After making the substitution (x,y)(4x,8y+4),(x,y)\to(4x,8y+4), we obtain

y2+y=x3+A4x+2k6s.y^{2}+y=x^{3}+A_{4}x+2^{k-6}s.

The new discriminant Δ/64=64A4327(1+2k2s)2\Delta/64=-64A_{4}^{3}-27(1+2^{k-2}s)^{2} is odd. The proportion of these curves is 1/210.1/2^{10}.

Under the condition (ii), we use the model (2.14). We have a4=3t2,a_{4}=-3t^{2}, with t3(mod4),t\equiv 3\pmod{4}, and a62t3+64s.a_{6}\equiv 2t^{3}+64s. After making the substitution (x,y)(4x+t,8y+1),(x,y)\to(4x+t,8y+1), we obtain

y2+xy=x3+3t14x2+s.y^{2}+xy=x^{3}+\frac{3t-1}{4}x^{2}+s.

The discriminant of this model is Δ/64=27(st3+16s2),\Delta/64=-27(s\,t^{3}+16s^{2}), which is odd. We may take any choice of a45(mod8)a_{4}\equiv 5\pmod{8}. This choice determines tt, and therefore determines a6(mod128).a_{6}\pmod{128}. The proportion of curves satisfying this situation is 1/210.1/2^{10}. Therefore, Tate’s algorithm gives δ^2(I0,1)=1/1024+1/1024=1/512.\widehat{\delta}_{2}(I_{0},1)=1/1024+1/1024=1/512.

Case 2 (None). This case is for Kodaira types In.I_{n}. There are no short form curves in this case as in Case 2 for p=3p=3 (i.e. 2b22\mid b_{2} because b2a¯12(mod4)b_{2}\equiv\underline{a}_{1}^{2}\pmod{4}). Therefore, we have δ2(In1,c2)=0.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{n\geq 1},c_{2})=0.

Case 2* ((𝒂𝟒,𝒂𝟔)(𝟓,𝟔)(𝐦𝐨𝐝𝟖),𝒅>𝟏𝟐\boldsymbol{(a_{4},a_{6})\equiv(5,6)\pmod{8},d>12}). This case is for the Kodaira type In1I_{n\geq 1}, with n=d12n=d-12, where EE is not 22-minimal. We use model (2.14). We have a4=3t2a_{4}=-3t^{2} and a6=2t3+2d6s,a_{6}=2t^{3}+2^{d-6}s, where t3(mod4).t\equiv 3\pmod{4}. After making the substitution (x,y)(4x+t,8y+1),(x,y)\to(4x+t,8y+1), we obtain

y2+xy=x3+3t14x2+2d12s.y^{2}+xy=x^{3}+\frac{3t-1}{4}x^{2}+2^{d-12}s.

The discriminant is Δ/64=27(2d12st3+22d20s2).\Delta/64=-27(2^{d-12}s\,t^{3}+2^{2d-20}s^{2}). Tate’s algorithm gives c2{1,2,n},c_{2}\in\{1,2,n\}, depending on the polynomial T2+T+3t14T^{2}+T+\frac{3t-1}{4} modulo 22. We have c2:=nc_{2}:=n if it has roots modulo 22 (i.e if t3(mod8)t\equiv 3\pmod{8}). If it does not have roots modulo 22 (i.e. if t5(mod8)t\equiv 5\pmod{8}), then c2:=1c_{2}:=1 (resp. c2:=2c_{2}:=2) if nn is odd (resp. even).

Therefore to compute the proportions, for any nn we may take any a45(mod8),a_{4}\equiv 5\pmod{8}, which determines t2,t\in\mathbb{Z}_{2}, with t3(mod4).t\equiv 3\pmod{4}. This then determines a62t3+2n+6(mod2n+7).a_{6}\equiv 2t^{3}+2^{n+6}\pmod{2^{n+7}}. Using ε(n)\varepsilon(n) as in Case 2 of Subsection 2.1, the algorithm gives that δ2(I1,1)=1/211,\delta^{\prime}_{2}(I_{1},1)=1/2^{11}, δ2(I2,2)=1/212,\delta^{\prime}_{2}(I_{2},2)=1/2^{12}, and δ2(In3,n)=δ2(In3,ε(n))=1/211+n.\delta^{\prime}_{2}(I_{n\geq 3},n)=\delta^{\prime}_{2}(I_{n\geq 3},\varepsilon(n))=1/2^{11+n}.

Case 3 ((𝒂𝟒,𝒂𝟔){(𝟎,𝟐),(𝟎,𝟑),(𝟏,𝟎),(𝟏,𝟏),(𝟐,𝟐),(𝟐,𝟑),(𝟑,𝟐),(𝟑,𝟑)(𝐦𝐨𝐝𝟒)}\boldsymbol{(a_{4},a_{6})\in\{(0,2),(0,3),(1,0),(1,1),(2,2),(2,3),(3,2),(3,3)\pmod{4}\}}). This case is Kodaira type II,II, where c2=1.c_{2}=1. A brute force analysis shows that these cases correspond only to the indicated congruence conditions. As these account for 88 out of the 1616 possible pairs (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) modulo 4,4, we obtain δ2(II,1)=1/2.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(II,1)=1/2.

Case 4 ((𝒂𝟒,𝒂𝟔){(𝟏,𝟑),(𝟐,𝟏),(𝟐,𝟎),(𝟑,𝟎)(𝐦𝐨𝐝𝟒)}\boldsymbol{(a_{4},a_{6})\in\{(1,3),(2,1),(2,0),(3,0)\pmod{4}\}}). This case is Kodaira type III,III, where c2=2.c_{2}=2. A brute force analysis shows that these cases correspond only to the indicated congruence conditions. As these account for 44 out of the 1616 possible pairs (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) modulo 4,4, we obtain δ2(III,2)=1/4.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(III,2)=1/4.

Case 5 ((𝒂𝟒,𝒂𝟔){(𝟎,𝟏),(𝟑,𝟏)(𝐦𝐨𝐝𝟒)}\boldsymbol{(a_{4},a_{6})\in\{(0,1),(3,1)\pmod{4}\}}). This case is for Kodaira type IVIV, where c2{1,3},c_{2}\in\{1,3\}, depending on the parity of (a6+a4t+t3v2)/4(a_{6}+a_{4}t+t^{3}-v^{2})/4. The algorithm gives c2:=3c_{2}:=3 (resp. c2:=1c_{2}:=1) if this number is even (resp. odd). By brute force, we find that c2=1c_{2}=1 for

(a4,a6)(mod8){(0,5),(3,1),(4,5),(7,5)(mod8)},(a_{4},a_{6})\pmod{8}\in\{(0,5),(3,1),(4,5),(7,5)\pmod{8}\},

and c2=3c_{2}=3 for

(a4,a6)(mod8){(0,1),(3,5),(4,1),(7,1)(mod8)}.(a_{4},a_{6})\pmod{8}\in\{(0,1),(3,5),(4,1),(7,1)\pmod{8}\}.

Therefore, we obtain δ2(IV,1)=1/16,\delta_{2}^{\prime}(IV,1)=1/16, and δ2(IV,3)=1/16.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(IV,3)=1/16.

Case 6. This case is for Kodaira type I0I_{0}^{*}, where c2{1,2}.c_{2}\in\{1,2\}. The following two possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α42\alpha_{4}\geq 2 and a68,12(mod16).a_{6}\equiv 8,12\pmod{16}.

  2. (ii)

    We have (a4,a6)(1,2)(mod4),(a_{4},a_{6})\equiv(1,2)\pmod{4}, and k=3,k=3, where kk is defined as in (2.15).

Assuming (i), there are numbers ss and vv for which a6=8s+v2a_{6}=8s+v^{2}, where ss is odd and v=0v=0 (resp. v=2v=2) when a68(mod16)a_{6}\equiv 8\pmod{16} (resp. when a612(mod16)a_{6}\equiv 12\pmod{16}). After making the substitution (x,y)(x,y+v),(x,y)\to(x,y+v), we obtain y2+2vy=x3+a4x+8s.y^{2}+2vy=x^{3}+a_{4}x+8s. Using this model, we define (as in (2.6))

P(T)=T3+14a4T+s.P(T)=T^{3}+\frac{1}{4}a_{4}T+s.

If a44(mod8),a_{4}\equiv 4\pmod{8}, then P(T)P(T) is irreducible modulo 22 and so c2:=1.c_{2}:=1. If a40(mod8),a_{4}\equiv 0\pmod{8}, then P(T)P(T) has one root modulo 22, and so c2:=2c_{2}:=2. Therefore the contributions from condition (i) to δ2(I0,1)\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},1) and δ2(I0,2)\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},2) are both 1/64.1/64.

For curves satisfying (ii), we use (2.15) to define

P(T)=T3+12(3t1)T2+s,P(T)=T^{3}+\frac{1}{2}(3t-1)T^{2}+s,

and Tate’s algorithm gives c2:=1c_{2}:=1 when t1(mod4),t\equiv 1\pmod{4}, and c2:=2c_{2}:=2 when t3(mod4).t\equiv 3\pmod{4}. Since k=3,k=3, we have v=0v=0 or 22. To calculate the proportion of curves satisfying (ii), we may pick any a41(mod4)a_{4}\equiv 1\pmod{4}. Then we have v=0v=0 when a41(mod8),a_{4}\equiv 1\pmod{8}, and v=2v=2 otherwise. The choice of a4a_{4} and c2c_{2} fixes tt uniquely, which then determines a62t32vt+v2+8(mod16).a_{6}\equiv 2t^{3}-2vt+v^{2}+8\pmod{16}. Thus, for each choice of c2c_{2}, condition (ii) contributes a proportion of 1/641/64 to δ2(I0,c2).\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},c_{2}). Therefore Tate’s algorithm gives δ2(I0,1)=δ2(I0,2)=1/64+1/64=1/32.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},1)=\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{0}^{*},2)=1/64+1/64=1/32.

Case 7. This case is for Kodaira type In1,I^{*}_{n\geq 1}, where c2{2,4}.c_{2}\in\{2,4\}. The only possibilities for (α4,α6)(\alpha_{4},\alpha_{6}) are:

  1. (i)

    We have α4=2\alpha_{4}=2 and a60,4(mod16).a_{6}\equiv 0,4\pmod{16}.

  2. (ii)

    We have a41(mod4),a_{4}\equiv 1\pmod{4}, a62(mod8),a_{6}\equiv 2\pmod{8}, and k4,k\geq 4, where kk is defined in (2.15).

Instead of proceeding as in the previous cases, we determine the conditions which result in any given choice of nn and c2{2,4}.c_{2}\in\{2,4\}. We are essentially working backwards through iterations of the sub-procedure in Step 7 of the algorithm. In particular, nn is the number of iterations required. As illustrated in the two previous subsections, this step of the algorithm makes use of two auxiliary polynomials, P(T)P(T) and R(Y)R(Y), which are defined by (2.6) and (2.7), from a long model (2.5) with 2a¯12\mid\underline{a}_{1}, a¯22(mod4),\underline{a}_{2}\equiv 2\pmod{4}, 4a¯34\mid\underline{a}_{3}, 8a¯48\mid\underline{a}_{4} and 16a¯6.16\mid\underline{a}_{6}.

Suppose that n=2a+1n=2a+1 is odd. Then the sub-procedure finds a model for which

22aR(2aY)Y2+Yor Y2+Y+1(mod2),2^{-2a}R(2^{a}Y)\equiv Y^{2}+Y\ {\text{\rm or }}\ Y^{2}+Y+1\pmod{2},

and also satisfies

22aP(2aT){T2(mod2)if a>0,T3+T2(mod2)if a=0.2^{-2a}P(2^{a}T)\equiv\begin{cases}T^{2}\pmod{2}\ \ \ \ &{\text{\rm if $a>0$,}}\\ T^{3}+T^{2}\pmod{2}\ \ \ \ &{\text{\rm if $a=0$}}.\end{cases}

The point here is the 22aP(2aT)(mod2)2^{-2a}P(2^{a}T)\pmod{2} has a double root at T=0.T=0.

These conditions are equivalent to the existence of A,B,C,A,B,C\in\mathbb{Z}, with AA odd, so that a¯3=2a+2A,\underline{a}_{3}=2^{a+2}A, a¯4=2a+3B,\underline{a}_{4}=2^{a+3}B, and a¯6=22a+4C\underline{a}_{6}=2^{2a+4}C. If CC is even, then we see that R(Y)R(Y) factors over 2\mathbb{Z}_{2}, and so the algorithm gives c2:=4.c_{2}:=4. Otherwise, we have c2:=2.c_{2}:=2. The substitutions yy+2xy\to y+2x and yy+2a+2y\to y+2^{a+2} do not alter any of the required conditions on P(T)P(T) and R(Y)R(Y). Therefore, we may assume without loss of generality a¯1=2u\underline{a}_{1}=2u with u{0,1},u\in\{0,1\}, and A=1A=1. Similarly, the substitution xx+2a+2x\to x+2^{a+2} does not alter the required conditions, and so we may assume that a¯2=3t0u2\underline{a}_{2}=3t_{0}-u^{2} for some t01(mod4)t_{0}\equiv 1\pmod{4} (if u=1u=1) or t02(mod4)t_{0}\equiv 2\pmod{4} (if u=0u=0), and 0<t0<2a+2.0<t_{0}<2^{a+2}. Then the substitution (x,y)(xt0,yux2a+2)(x,y)\to(x-t_{0},y-ux-2^{a+2}) returns the equation of the curve to Weierstrass short form, y2=x3+a4x+a6,y^{2}=x^{3}+a_{4}x+a_{6}, where we see that a4=3t02+2a+2u+2a+2Ba_{4}=-3t_{0}^{2}+2^{a+2}u+2^{a+2}B, and a6=t03t0a4+22a+2+22a+4C.a_{6}=-t_{0}^{3}-t_{0}a_{4}+2^{2a+2}+2^{2a+4}C. We therefore have 22 choices for uu and 2a2^{a} choices for tt depending on uu. This determines a4(mod2a+3).a_{4}\pmod{2^{a+3}}. Together with c2,c_{2}, this determines a6(mod22a+5).a_{6}\pmod{2^{2a+5}}. Thus for a fixed odd nn and choice of c2c_{2}, we see that δ2(In1,c2)=2a+11/2a+31/22a+5=1/2n+6.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{n\geq 1},c_{2})=2^{a+1}\cdot{1}/{2^{a+3}}\cdot{1}/{2^{2a+5}}={1}/{2^{n+6}}.

Now suppose that n=2an=2a is even. Then the sub-procedure finds a model for which

22aP(2aT)T2+Tor T2+T+1(mod2),2^{-2a}P(2^{a}T)\equiv T^{2}+T\ {\text{\rm or }}\ T^{2}+T+1\pmod{2},

and satisfies 22a+2R(2a1Y)Y2(mod2).2^{-2a+2}R(2^{a-1}Y)\equiv Y^{2}\pmod{2}. This is equivalent to the existence of integers A,B,A,B, and C,C, with BB odd, so that a¯3=2a+2A,\underline{a}_{3}=2^{a+2}A, a¯4=2a+2B,\underline{a}_{4}=2^{a+2}B, and a¯6=22a+3C\underline{a}_{6}=2^{2a+3}C. If CC is even, then we see that R(T)R(T) factors over 2\mathbb{Z}_{2}, and the algorithm gives c2:=4.c_{2}:=4. Otherwise, we have c2:=2.c_{2}:=2. As before, we note that the substitutions yy+2xy\to y+2x and yy+2a+2y\to y+2^{a+2} do not alter any of the required conditions. Therefore, we may assume without loss of generality a¯1=2u\underline{a}_{1}=2u with u{0,1},u\in\{0,1\}, and A=0A=0. Similarly, the substitution xx+2a+2x\to x+2^{a+2} does not alter the conditions, so we may assume that a¯2=3t0u2\underline{a}_{2}=3t_{0}-u^{2} for some t01,2(mod4)t_{0}\equiv 1,2\pmod{4} (depending on uu), and 0<t0<2a+2.0<t_{0}<2^{a+2}. After making the substitution (x,y)(xt0,yux),(x,y)\to(x-t_{0},y-ux), we obtain the short Weierstrass model, y2=x3+a4x+a6,y^{2}=x^{3}+a_{4}x+a_{6}, where a4=3t02+2a+2Ba_{4}=-3t_{0}^{2}+2^{a+2}B, and a6=t03t0a4+22a+3C.a_{6}=-t_{0}^{3}-t_{0}a_{4}+2^{2a+3}C. We therefore have 22 choices for uu and 2a2^{a} choices for t0t_{0} depending on uu. This determines a4(mod2a+3).a_{4}\pmod{2^{a+3}}. Together with the choice of c2,c_{2}, this determines a6(mod22a+4).a_{6}\pmod{2^{2a+4}}. Hence, for a fixed odd nn and choice of c2c_{2}, we see that δ2(In1,c2)=2a+11/2a+31/22a+4=1/2n+6.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{n\geq 1},c_{2})=2^{a+1}\cdot{1}/{2^{a+3}}\cdot{1}/{2^{2a+4}}={1}/{2^{n+6}}.

A short calculation shows that the case u=0u=0 implies that (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) satisfies (i), where as u=1u=1 implies that (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) satisfies (ii). In summary, for each n1n\geq 1 we have δ2(In1,2)=δ2(In1,4)=1/2n+6.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{n\geq 1},2)=\delta_{2}^{\prime}(I_{n\geq 1},4)=1/2^{n+6}.

Case 8. This case is for Kodaira type IVIV^{*}, where c2{1,3}c_{2}\in\{1,3\}. The following two possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α43\alpha_{4}\geq 3 and a64(mod16).a_{6}\equiv 4\pmod{16}.

  2. (ii)

    We have (a4,a6)(1,6)(mod8),(a_{4},a_{6})\equiv(1,6)\pmod{8}, and k4.k\geq 4. Note that kk is from model (2.15).

For (i), the algorithm implies that c2:=1c_{2}:=1 if a620(mod32),a_{6}\equiv 20\pmod{32}, and c2:=3c_{2}:=3 when a64(mod32).a_{6}\equiv 4\pmod{32}. Therefore, (i) contributes a proportion of 1/256 for both c2=1c_{2}=1 and c2=3.c_{2}=3. For condition (ii), the algorithm implies that c2:=1c_{2}:=1 if k=4k=4 (resp. c2:=3c_{2}:=3 if k5k\geq 5). In this situation, we have t3(mod4),t\equiv 3\pmod{4}, and v=2v=2. The condition that k4k\geq 4 then implies that (a4,a6)(1,6)(a_{4},a_{6})\equiv(1,6) or (9,14)(mod16).(9,14)\pmod{16}. Half of each set of possible pairs (a4,a6)(a_{4},a_{6}) will correspond to each possible c2,c_{2}, thereby contributing another proportion of 1/256, and so we obtain δ2(IV,1)=δ2(IV,3)=1/128.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(IV^{*},1)=\delta_{2}^{\prime}(IV^{*},3)=1/128.

Case 9. This is for Kodaira type III,III^{*}, where c2=2c_{2}=2. The following two possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α4=3\alpha_{4}=3 and α64.\alpha_{6}\geq 4.

  2. (ii)

    We have (a4,a6)(5,6)(mod8),(a_{4},a_{6})\equiv(5,6)\pmod{8}, and k=4.k=4. Note that kk is from model (2.15).

For condition (i), we have (a4,a6)(8,0)(mod16),(a_{4},a_{6})\equiv(8,0)\pmod{16}, and so the proportion of curves in this case is 1/256.1/256. For condition (ii), we have a4=3t2,a_{4}=-3t^{2}, and a616a4tt3(mod32),a_{6}\equiv 16-a_{4}t-t^{3}\pmod{32}, which implies that t3(mod4).t\equiv 3\pmod{4}. Therefore, by brute force we find that (a4,a6)(mod32){(5,6),(13,30),(21,22),(29,14)(mod32)},(a_{4},a_{6})\pmod{32}\in\{(5,6),(13,30),(21,22),(29,14)\pmod{32}\}, representing a proportion 1/256, and so we obtain δ2(III,2)=1/256+1/256=1/128.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(III^{*},2)=1/256+1/256=1/128.

Case 10. This case is Kodaira type II,II^{*}, where c2=1.c_{2}=1. The following two possibilities for this case are:

  1. (i)

    We have α44\alpha_{4}\geq 4 and a632,48(mod64).a_{6}\equiv 32,48\pmod{64}.

  2. (ii)

    We have (a4,a6)(5,6)(mod8),(a_{4},a_{6})\equiv(5,6)\pmod{8}, and k=5.k=5. Note that kk is from model (2.15).

Clearly, the proportion of curves satisfying (i) is 1/512.1/512. For (ii), we note that v=0v=0, and that tt is uniquely determined by a45(mod8),a_{4}\equiv 5\pmod{8}, which determines a6a4tt3+32(mod64).a_{6}\equiv-a_{4}t-t^{3}+32\pmod{64}. Therefore, the proportion of curves in this case is also 1/512, and so δ2(II,1)=1/512+1/512=1/256.\delta_{2}^{\prime}(II^{*},1)=1/512+1/512=1/256.

Case 11 (𝜶𝟒𝟒 and 𝜶𝟔𝟔\boldsymbol{\alpha_{4}\geq 4\textbf{ and }\alpha_{6}\geq 6}). As the model is not minimal, the algorithm replaces a4a_{4} and a6a_{6} with a4/16a_{4}/16 and a6/64a_{6}/64 respectively. One repeats these substitutions until one obtains a model which is one of the ten cases above.

3. Proofs

3.1. Tamagawa Numbers and the proof of Theorems 1.1 and 1.3

Using the results from the previous section, we now compute each δp(n)\delta_{p}(n), the proportion of curves E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) whose pp-minimal models have cp=n.c_{p}=n.

Lemma 3.1.

If pp is prime and n1n\geq 1, then the following are true.

  1. (1)

    For p=2,p=2, we have δ2(1)=241/396,\delta_{2}(1)=241/396, δ2(2)=7495/24552,\delta_{2}(2)=7495/24552, δ2(3)=1153/16368,\delta_{2}(3)=1153/16368, and δ2(4)=171/10912.\delta_{2}(4)=171/10912. Moreover, if n5n\geq 5, then

    δ2(n)=12n+11023.\delta_{2}(n)=\displaystyle{\frac{1}{2^{n+1}\cdot 1023}}.
  2. (2)

    For p=3p=3, we have δ3(1)=1924625/2125728,\delta_{3}(1)=1924625/2125728, δ3(2)=510641/6377184,\delta_{3}(2)=510641/6377184, δ3(3)=7594/597861,\delta_{3}(3)=7594/597861, and δ3(4)=1193/652212.\delta_{3}(4)=1193/652212. Moreover, if n5n\geq 5, then

    δ3(n)=13n+129524.\delta_{3}(n)=\displaystyle{\frac{1}{3^{n+1}\cdot 29524}}.
  3. (3)

    If p5p\geq 5 is prime, then we have

    δp(n)={ 1p(6p7+9p6+9p5+7p4+8p3+7p2+9p+6)6(p+1)2(p8+p6+p4+p2+1)ifn=1,p(2p7+2p6+p5+p4+2p3+p2+2p+2)2(p+1)2(p8+p6+p4+p2+1)ifn=2,p2(p4+1)2(p+1)(p8+p6+p4+p2+1)ifn=3,p3(3p22p1)6(p+1)(p8+p6+p4+p2+1)ifn=4,p102p9+p82pn(p101)ifn5.\delta_{p}(n)=\begin{cases}{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}\displaystyle\ 1-\frac{p(6p^{7}+9p^{6}+9p^{5}+7p^{4}+8p^{3}+7p^{2}+9p+6)}{6(p+1)^{2}(p^{8}+p^{6}+p^{4}+p^{2}+1)}}\ \ \ \ &{\text{i}f}\ n=1,\\[14.0pt] {\color[rgb]{0,0,0}\displaystyle\ \ \ \frac{p(2p^{7}+2p^{6}+p^{5}+p^{4}+2p^{3}+p^{2}+2p+2)}{2(p+1)^{2}(p^{8}+p^{6}+p^{4}+p^{2}+1)}}\ \ \ \ &{\text{i}f}\ n=2,\\[14.0pt] \displaystyle\ \ \ \frac{p^{2}(p^{4}+1)}{2(p+1)(p^{8}+p^{6}+p^{4}+p^{2}+1)}\ \ \ \ &{\text{i}f}\ n=3,\\[14.0pt] \displaystyle\ \ \ \frac{p^{3}(3p^{2}-{2p}-1)}{6(p+1)(p^{8}+p^{6}+p^{4}+p^{2}+1)}\ \ \ \ &{\text{i}f}\ n=4,\\[14.0pt] \displaystyle\ \ \ \frac{p^{10}-2p^{9}+p^{8}}{2p^{n}(p^{10}-1)}\ \ \ \ &{\text{i}f}\ n\geq 5.\\ \end{cases}
Proof.

We first prove (3), the formulas for δp(n),\delta_{p}(n), where p5p\geq 5 is prime. In the previous section, we computed the numbers δp(K,n),\delta^{\prime}_{p}(K,n), the proportion of pp-minimal short Weierstrass models with Kodaira type KK and Tamagawa number cp=n.c_{p}=n. We determine δp(n)\delta_{p}(n) from the δp(K,n)\delta^{\prime}_{p}(K,n) by keeping track of the distribution of all short Weierstrass models onto the pp-minimal models as dictated by Tate’s algorithm. Thanks to Lemma 2.1, we only need to consider the iterations of substitution in case eleven, which takes into account the divisibility of a4a_{4} (resp. a6a_{6}) by powers of p4p^{4} (resp. p6p^{6}). Moreover, 1/p10n1/p^{10^{n}} represents the proportion of curves that pass through at least nn additional iterations before satisfying one of the first ten cases. Therefore, we obtain the formula

(3.1) δp(n):=Kδp(K,n)(1+1p10+1p20+)=p10p101Kδp(K,n).\delta_{p}(n):=\sum_{K}\delta^{\prime}_{p}(K,n)\cdot\left(1+\frac{1}{p^{10}}+\frac{1}{p^{20}}+\dots\right)=\frac{p^{10}}{p^{10}-1}\sum_{K}\delta^{\prime}_{p}(K,n).

The formulas are obtained using the entries in Table 5 in the Appendix. For example, if n=1,n=1, then we have

δp(1)=p10p101(p1p+(p1)2p3+(p1)p3+(p1)2p5+(p21)3p7+(p1)2p8+(p1)p10)+p10p101m=3modd(p1)22pm+2=1p(6p7+9p6+9p5+7p4+8p3+7p2+9p+6)6(p+1)2(p8+p6+p4+p2+1).\begin{split}\delta_{p}(1)&=\frac{p^{10}}{p^{10}-1}\cdot\left(\frac{p-1}{p}+\frac{(p-1)^{2}}{p^{3}}+\frac{(p-1)}{p^{3}}+\frac{(p-1)}{2p^{5}}+\frac{(p^{2}-1)}{3p^{7}}+\frac{(p-1)}{2p^{8}}+\frac{(p-1)}{p^{10}}\right)+\frac{p^{10}}{p^{10}-1}{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}\sum_{\begin{subarray}{c}m=3\\ m~{}\mathrm{odd}\end{subarray}}^{\infty}}\frac{(p-1)^{2}}{2p^{m+2}}\\ &={\color[rgb]{0,0,0}1-\frac{p(6p^{7}+9p^{6}+9p^{5}+7p^{4}+8p^{3}+7p^{2}+9p+6)}{6(p+1)^{2}(p^{8}+p^{6}+p^{4}+p^{2}+1)}}.\end{split}

The infinite sum on m3m\geq 3 corresponds to the Kodaira types Im3,I_{m\geq 3}, where mm is odd.

We now turn to the proof of (2). Curves satisfying condition (1) or (2) of Lemma 2.2 are not included in the proportions δp(K,n).\delta^{\prime}_{p}(K,n). We replace the curves satisfying (2) with the models given in (2.10). Since tt is a 33-adic unit, these curves cannot be transformed into short Weierstrass form without either introducing a denominator of 33 or increasing the discriminant. After a second pass through the algorithm, we find that these curves terminate in either case 11 or 2.2. We designated these situations in the previous subsection with an asterisk, and we denote the proportion of such curves satisfying (2) with minimal model with Kodaira type KK and Tamagawa number c3=nc_{3}=n by δ^3(K,n).\widehat{\delta}_{3}(K,n). As above, we have that 1/3101/3^{10} is the proportion of curves satisfying condition (1), and which then pass through the algorithm again. More generally, 1/310n1/3^{10^{n}} represents the proportion of curves that pass through at least nn additional iterations before satisfying one of the first ten cases, or condition (2) of Lemma 2.2. We may therefore use a geometric series to count these curves. This leads to the formula

(3.2) δ3(n):=K(δ3(K,n)+δ^3(K,n))(1+1310+1320+)=3103101K(δ3(K,n)+δ^3(K,n)).\delta_{3}(n):=\sum_{K}(\delta^{\prime}_{3}(K,n)+\widehat{\delta}_{3}(K,n))\cdot\left(1+\frac{1}{3^{10}}+\frac{1}{3^{20}}+\dots\right)=\frac{3^{10}}{3^{10}-1}\cdot\sum_{K}(\delta^{\prime}_{3}(K,n)+\widehat{\delta}_{3}(K,n)).

By brute force calculation using the entries listed in Tables 6 and  7 in the Appendix, we obtain (2).

Finally, we prove (1). Curves satisfying condition (1), (2), or (3) of Lemma 2.3 are not included in the proportions δp(K,n).\delta^{\prime}_{p}(K,n). We replace the curves satisfying (2) with the models given in (2.13), and the curves satisfying (3) with the models given in (2.14). Since either the coefficient of yy or of xyxy in the reduced model is odd, these curves cannot be transformed into short Weierstrass form without either introducing a denominator of 22 or increasing the discriminant. After a second pass through the algorithm, we find that these curves terminate in either case 11 or 2.2. We designated these situations in the previous subsection with an asterisk, and we denote the proportion of such curves satisfying (2) with minimal model with Kodaira type KK and Tamagawa number c2=nc_{2}=n by δ^2(K,n).\widehat{\delta}_{2}(K,n). Moreover as above, 1/2101/2^{10} is the proportion of curves that satisfy condition (1), and pass through the algorithm again. More generally, 1/210n1/2^{10^{n}} is the proportion of curves that pass through at least nn additional iterations of the algorithm before satisfying one of the first ten cases, or satisfies (2) or (3) of Lemma 2.3. We may therefore use a geometric series to count these curves. Therefore, it follows that the analog of (3.2), again using Tables 6 and  7, is

δ2(n):=2102101Type K(δ2(K,n)+δ^2(K,n))\delta_{2}(n):={\color[rgb]{0,0,0}\frac{2^{10}}{2^{10}-1}\sum_{{\text{Type $K$}}}(\delta_{2}^{\prime}(K,n)+\widehat{\delta}_{2}(K,n))}

Proof of Theorem 1.1.

By Lemma 3.1 and the Chinese Remainder Theorem, we have

PTam(1):=limX+𝒩1(X)𝒩(X)=pprimeδp(1)=0.5053.P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1):=\lim_{X\rightarrow+\infty}\frac{\mathcal{N}_{1}(X)}{\mathcal{N}(X)}=\prod_{p\ {\text{\rm prime}}}\delta_{p}(1)={\color[rgb]{0,0,0}0.5053\dots.}

More generally, by multiplicativity, we formally find that

LTam(s):=m=1PTam(m)ms=pprime(δp(1)1s+δp(2)2s+δp(3)3s+).L_{\mathrm{Tam}}(s):=\sum_{m=1}^{\infty}\frac{P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(m)}{m^{s}}=\prod_{p\ prime}\left(\frac{\delta_{p}(1)}{1^{s}}+\frac{\delta_{p}(2)}{2^{s}}+\frac{\delta_{p}(3)}{3^{s}}+\dots\right).

To complete the proof it suffices to verify the convergence of the Dirichlet coefficients defined by this infinite product. To this end, we note that Lemma 3.1 (3) establishes, for primes p5p\geq 5, that 11p2<δp(1)<1.1-\frac{1}{p^{2}}<\delta_{p}(1)<1. Therefore, convergence follows by comparison with 1/ζ(2)=p(11p2)=6/π2.1/\zeta(2)=\prod_{p}\left(1-\frac{1}{p^{2}}\right)=6/\pi^{2}.

Proof of Theorem 1.3.

Using Lemma 3.1, we find that the “average value” of Tam(E(a4,a6))\mathrm{Tam}(E(a_{4},a_{6})) is

(3.3) LTam(1)=m=1PTam(m)m=pprime(δp(1)+2δp(2)+3δp(3)+)L_{\mathrm{Tam}}(-1)=\sum_{m=1}^{\infty}P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(m)m=\prod_{p\ prime}\left(\delta_{p}(1)+2\delta_{p}(2)+3\delta_{p}(3)+\dots\right)

provided that this expression is convergent. To this end, we apply Lemma 3.1. For p5,p\geq 5, Lemma 3.1 gives δp(1)=11p2+o(1/p2)\delta_{p}(1)=1-\frac{1}{p^{2}}+o(1/p^{2}), and for n2n\geq 2 gives 0<δp(n)n<npn.0<\delta_{p}(n)n<\frac{n}{p^{n}}. Therefore, since n=1npn=p/(p1)2\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}\frac{n}{p^{n}}=p/(p-1)^{2} we have

n=1δp(n)n=11p2+O(1p2).\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}\delta_{p}(n)n=1-\frac{1}{p^{2}}+O\left(\frac{1}{p^{2}}\right).

Similarly, we have convergence for p{2,3},p\in\{2,3\}, and we have n1δ2(n)n=1.4941\sum_{n\geq 1}\delta_{2}(n)n={\color[rgb]{0,0,0}1.4941\dots} and n1δ3(n)n=1.1109.\sum_{n\geq 1}\delta_{3}(n)n={\color[rgb]{0,0,0}1.1109\dots}. The convergence of (3.3) follows by multiplicativity, and with a computer one finds LTam(1)=1.8193.L_{\mathrm{Tam}}(-1)={\color[rgb]{0,0,0}1.8193\dots}.

3.2. Proof of Lemma 1.4

We expand on an example of Buhler, Gross and Zagier [5], which is based on a method of Tate (for example, see [12]). For E=E(a4,a6)E=E(a_{4},a_{6}), we define

(3.4) FE(x):=12log|x|+18n=0log|zn|4n,F_{E}(x):=\frac{1}{2}\log|x|_{\infty}+\frac{1}{8}\sum_{n=0}^{\infty}\frac{\log|z_{n}|_{\infty}}{4^{n}},

where |||\cdot|_{\infty} is the usual archimedean valuation of ,\mathbb{R}, and where for n0n\geq 0 we let

(3.5) x0=x,zn=12a4xn28a6xn3+a42xn4,andxn+1=xn42a4xn28a6xn+a424(xn3+a4xn+a6).\displaystyle x_{0}=x,\quad z_{n}=1-\frac{2a_{4}}{x_{n}^{2}}-\frac{8a_{6}}{x_{n}^{3}}+\frac{a_{4}^{2}}{x_{n}^{4}},\quad\mathrm{and}\quad x_{n+1}=\frac{x_{n}^{4}-2a_{4}x_{n}^{2}-8a_{6}x_{n}+a_{4}^{2}}{4(x_{n}^{3}+a_{4}x_{n}+a_{6})}.

For PE()P\in E(\mathbb{Q}), if x:=x(P),x:=x(P), then we have xn=x(2nP).x_{n}=x(2^{n}P). Moreover, as n+n\rightarrow+\infty, FE(xn)log|xn|/2F_{E}(x_{n})-\log|x_{n}|_{\infty}/2 converges.

For brevity, we consider the case where E()E(\mathbb{R}) has one component, as a similar argument applies to convenient curves with two real components. Let 𝒪PE()\mathcal{O}\neq P\in E(\mathbb{Q}) be a rational point. The canonical height h^(P)\widehat{h}(P) can be computed as a sum of local heights (for example, see Ch. VI of [14]) h^(P)=vh^v(P),\widehat{h}(P)=\sum_{v}\widehat{h}_{v}(P), where the sum is over all the places of \mathbb{Q} (including \infty).

Since EE is Tamagawa trivial, Theorem 5.2 b) of [12] with N=1N=1 and n=0n=0 shows that places of bad reduction make no contribution to this summation. Furthermore, thanks to the calculation in [5, p. 475], we have

(3.6) h^(P)=h^(P)=12hW(P)+FE(x(P))12max(0,log|x(P)|).\displaystyle\widehat{h}(P)=\widehat{h}_{\infty}(P)=\frac{1}{2}h_{W}(P)+F_{E}(x(P))-\frac{1}{2}\textrm{max}(0,\log|x(P)|_{\infty}).

Finally, the hypothesis that a40a_{4}\leq 0 and (α,){x:2a4x2+8a6xa42<0}(\alpha,\infty)\subset\left\{x\in\mathbb{R}:2a_{4}x^{2}+8a_{6}x-a_{4}^{2}<0\right\} implies that x(P)1x(P)\geq 1 for all (if any) non-torsion points. Therefore, log|x(P)|0\log|x(P)|_{\infty}\geq 0 and FE(x(P))12log|x(P)|0.F_{E}(x(P))-\frac{1}{2}\log|x(P)|_{\infty}\geq 0. Hence, by (3.6), the first case follows immediately.

3.3. Proof of Corollary 1.5

Before we prove Corollary 1.5, we begin with an auxiliary lemma which establishes that the vast proportion of curves E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) with bounded height are already minimal models. Namely, we let

(3.7) 𝒩min(X):=#{E(a4,a6)a minimal model: 0pt(E(a4,a6))X}.\mathcal{N}_{\min}(X):=\#\{E(a_{4},a_{6})\ {\text{\rm a minimal model}}\ :\ 0pt(E(a_{4},a_{6}))\leq X\}.
Lemma 3.2.

As X+X\rightarrow+\infty, we have

ρ:=limX+𝒩min(X)𝒩(X)=21342914775228811π10=0.9960.\rho:=\lim_{X\rightarrow+\infty}\frac{\mathcal{N}_{\min}(X)}{\mathcal{N}(X)}=\frac{21342914775}{228811\pi^{10}}=0.9960\dots.
Proof.

For primes p5,p\geq 5, Lemma 2.1, shows that the only short Weierstrass models which are not pp-minimal have vp(a4)4v_{p}(a_{4})\geq 4 and vp(a6)6v_{p}(a_{6})\geq 6. Therefore, the multiplicative contribution to ρ\rho for such primes is 11/p10.1-1/p^{10}. Similarly, for p=2p=2 (resp. p=3p=3), Lemma 2.3 (resp. Lemma 2.2) determines those short Weierstrass models which are 22-minimal (resp. 33-minimal). Using the tables in the Appendix, we find that the proportion of 22-minimal curves is TypeKδ2(K,n)=255/256=11/28\sum_{\mathrm{Type}~{}K}\delta_{2}^{\prime}(K,n)=255/256=1-1/2^{8} (resp. 33-minimal curves is Kδ3(K,n)=19682/19683=11/39\sum_{K}\delta_{3}^{\prime}(K,n)=19682/19683=1-1/3^{9}). The formula for ρ\rho follows by multiplicativity and the fact that ζ(10)=p(11p10)1=π10/93555.\zeta(10)=\prod_{p}\left(1-\frac{1}{p^{10}}\right)^{-1}=\pi^{10}/93555.

Proof of Corollary 1.5.

Thanks to Theorem 1.1, we find that

(3.8) limX+𝒩c(X)𝒩(X)=κPTam(1)=κpprimeδp(1).\lim_{X\rightarrow+\infty}\frac{\mathcal{N}_{c}(X)}{\mathcal{N}(X)}=\kappa\cdot P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1)=\kappa\prod_{p\ prime}\delta_{p}(1).

where κ\kappa is the proportion of E(a4,a6)E(a_{4},a_{6}) that are minimal models that also satisfy one of the following two conditions.

  1. (1)

    We have that E()E(\mathbb{R}) has one connected component, and

    a40and(α,){x:2a4x2+8a6xa42<0},a_{4}\leq 0\ \ \ {\text{\rm and}}\ \ \ (\alpha,\infty)\subset\left\{x\in\mathbb{R}:2a_{4}x^{2}+8a_{6}x-a_{4}^{2}<0\right\},

    where α\alpha is the real root of x3+a4x+a6x^{3}+a_{4}x+a_{6}.

  2. (2)

    We have that E()E(\mathbb{R}) has two connected components, and

    a40and(γ,β)(α,){x:2a4x2+8a6xa42<0},a_{4}\leq 0\ \ \ {\text{\rm and}}\ \ \ (\gamma,\beta)\cup(\alpha,\infty)\subset\left\{x\in\mathbb{R}:2a_{4}x^{2}+8a_{6}x-a_{4}^{2}<0\right\},

    where γ<β<α\gamma<\beta<\alpha are the real roots of x3+a4x+a6x^{3}+a_{4}x+a_{6}.

Therefore, we have that κ:=ρ(κ1+κ2)\kappa:=\rho\cdot(\kappa_{1}+\kappa_{2}), where ρ\rho is given in Lemma 3.2, and κ1\kappa_{1} (resp. κ2\kappa_{2}) denotes the proportion of E=E(a4,a6)E=E(a_{4},a_{6}) with 0pt(E)X0pt(E)\leq X that satisfy condition (1) (resp. (2)).

It is convenient to first reformulate these two cases in terms of models over \mathbb{R} given by a single parameter TT. To this end, we make use of the change of variable

(3.9) (x,y)(|a4|x,|a4|3/4y).(x,y)\to(\sqrt{|a_{4}|}x,|a_{4}|^{3/4}y).

By letting T:=a6/|a4|3/2,T:=a_{6}/|a_{4}|^{3/2}, we then obtain

y2=x3x+T.y^{2}=x^{3}-x+T.

If we set F(x,T)=x3x+TF(x,T)=x^{3}-x+T and G(x,T)=2x2+8Tx1G(x,T)=-2x^{2}+8Tx-1, then both (1) and (2) are reformulated as

(3.10) G(x,T)<0for allxsuch thatF(x,T)>0.G(x,T)<0\ \ \text{for all}\ \ x\in\mathbb{R}\ \ \text{such that}\ \ F(x,T)>0.

The convenient curves with a4=0a_{4}=0 have density 0 as X+.X\rightarrow+\infty. Therefore, it suffices to consider (3.10).

It is straightforward to determine when (3.10) holds using the discriminant of F(x,T)F(x,T). Indeed, the discriminant is positive (resp. negative) when the curve has 2 real components (resp. 1 real component). Hence, the two cases are determined by the location of TT in \mathbb{R}, with respect to the points satisfying one of the following possibilities:

  • the discriminant of F(x,T)F(x,T) (with respect to xx) is 0

  • the discriminant of G(x,T)G(x,T) (with respect to xx) is 0

  • points TT where F(x,T)F(x,T) and G(x,T)G(x,T) share a root.

These conditions are dictated by the common zeros of F(x,T)F(x,T) and G(x,T)G(x,T).

The discriminant of F(x,T)F(x,T) with respect to xx is 427T24-27T^{2}, which is zero when T=±227.T=\pm\frac{2}{\sqrt{27}}. The discriminant of G(x,T)G(x,T) with respect to xx is 64T2864T^{2}-8, which is zero when T=±18.T=\pm\frac{1}{\sqrt{8}}. To determine when FF and GG share a root, set

r±(T)=8T±64T284=2T4T212,r_{\pm}(T)=\frac{-8T\pm\sqrt{64T^{2}-8}}{-4}=2T\mp\sqrt{4T^{2}-\tfrac{1}{2}},

which are the two roots in xx of G(x,T).G(x,T). Then a straightforward calculation reveals that F(x,T)F(x,T) and G(x,T)G(x,T) share a root in xx if and only if TT is a root of the polynomial

F(r+(T))F(r(T))= 64T417T2+98=18(8T21)(8T+3)(8T3).F(r_{+}(T))\cdot F(r_{-}(T))\ =\ 64T^{4}-17T^{2}+\tfrac{9}{8}\ =\ \tfrac{1}{8}(8T^{2}-1)(8T+3)(8T-3).

Hence, we have the two additional critical values T=±38T=\pm\frac{3}{8}. By calculating the functions F(x,T)F(x,T) and G(x,T)G(x,T) for TT in the various intervals between these critical values, we see that (3.10) is satisfied only when T(,2/27)T\in\left(-\infty,-2/\sqrt{27}\right) or T(1/8,1/8).T\in\left(-1/\sqrt{8},1/\sqrt{8}\right). The first interval corresponds to case (1), while the second is case (2).

We now analyze these cases separately taking into account (3.9). In the first case, T<227T<-\frac{2}{\sqrt{27}} implies that a6<0a_{6}<0 and 3(a6/2)2/3<a4<0.-3\left(a_{6}/2\right)^{2/3}<a_{4}<0. If ht(E(a4,a6))X\text{ht}(E(a_{4},a_{6}))\leq X, then we have that |a4|X/43|a_{4}|\leq\sqrt[3]{X/4}, and |a6|X/27.|a_{6}|\leq\sqrt{X/27}. As XX approaches infinity, the proportion of such curves satisfying 3(a6/2)2/3<a4<0,-3\left(a_{6}/2\right)^{2/3}<a_{4}<0, with a6<0,a_{6}<0, satisfies

κ1:=limX+3X/270(s/2)2/3𝑑s4X/43X/27=320.\displaystyle\kappa_{1}\ :=\ \lim_{X\rightarrow+\infty}\frac{3\displaystyle\int_{-\sqrt{X/27}}^{0}\left(s/2\right)^{2/3}ds}{4\cdot\sqrt[3]{X/4}\cdot\sqrt{X/27}}\ =\ \frac{3}{20}.

For (2), we note that |T|<18|T|<\frac{1}{\sqrt{8}} implies |a6|<18|a4|3/2,|a_{6}|<\frac{1}{\sqrt{8}}|a_{4}|^{3/2}, and so

κ2:=limX+20X/4318s3/2𝑑s4X/43X/27=3640.\displaystyle\kappa_{2}\ :=\ \lim_{X\rightarrow+\infty}\frac{2\displaystyle\int_{0}^{\sqrt[3]{X/4}}\tfrac{1}{\sqrt{8}}s^{3/2}ds}{4\cdot\sqrt[3]{X/4}\cdot\sqrt{X/27}}\ =\ \frac{3\sqrt{6}}{40}.

Therefore, Lemma 3.7 shows that (3.8) is

κPTam(1)=ρ(κ1+κ2)PTam(1)=21342914775228811π10(320+3640)PTam(1)=0.1679.{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}\kappa\cdot P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1)=\rho\cdot(\kappa_{1}+\kappa_{2})\cdot P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1)=\frac{21342914775}{228811\pi^{10}}\cdot\left(\frac{3}{20}+\frac{3\sqrt{6}}{40}\right)\cdot P_{\mathrm{Tam}}(1)=0.1679\dots.}

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4. Appendix

Type cpc_{p} δp(K,n)\delta_{p}^{\prime}(K,n) Type cpc_{p} δp(K,n)\delta_{p}^{\prime}(K,n) Type cpc_{p} δp(K,n)\delta_{p}^{\prime}(K,n)
I0I_{0} 11 p1p\frac{p-1}{p} I0I_{0}^{*} 11 13(p21)p7\frac{1}{3}\frac{(p^{2}-1)}{p^{7}} IIIIII 22 (p1)p4\frac{(p-1)}{p^{4}}
I1I_{1} 11 (p1)2p3\frac{(p-1)^{2}}{p^{3}} I0I_{0}^{*} 22 12(p1)p6\frac{1}{2}\frac{(p-1)}{p^{6}} IIIIII^{*} 22 (p1)p9\frac{(p-1)}{p^{9}}
I2I_{2} 22 (p1)2p4\frac{(p-1)^{2}}{p^{4}} I0I_{0}^{*} 44 16(p1)(p2)p7\frac{1}{6}\frac{(p-1)(p-2)}{p^{7}} IVIV 11 12(p1)p5\frac{1}{2}\frac{(p-1)}{p^{5}}
In3I_{n\geq 3} ε(n)\varepsilon(n) 12(p1)2pn+2\frac{1}{2}\frac{(p-1)^{2}}{p^{n+2}} In1I^{*}_{n\geq 1} 22 12(p1)2p7+n\frac{1}{2}\frac{(p-1)^{2}}{p^{7+n}} IVIV 33 12(p1)p5\frac{1}{2}\frac{(p-1)}{p^{5}}
In3I_{n\geq 3} nn 12(p1)2pn+2\frac{1}{2}\frac{(p-1)^{2}}{p^{n+2}} In1I^{*}_{n\geq 1} 44 12(p1)2p7+n\frac{1}{2}\frac{(p-1)^{2}}{p^{7+n}} IVIV^{*} 11 12(p1)p8\frac{1}{2}\frac{(p-1)}{p^{8}}
IIII 11 (p1)p3\frac{(p-1)}{p^{3}} IIII^{*} 11 (p1)p10\frac{(p-1)}{p^{10}} IVIV^{*} 33 12(p1)p8\frac{1}{2}\frac{(p-1)}{p^{8}}
Table 5. The δp(K,n)\delta_{p}^{\prime}(K,n) for p5p\geq 5 (Note. ε(n):=((1)n+3)/2.\varepsilon(n):=((-1)^{n}+3)/2.)
Type c2c_{2} δ^2(K,n)\widehat{\delta}_{2}(K,n) Type c2c_{2} δ^2(K,n)\widehat{\delta}_{2}(K,n)
I0I_{0} 11 1512\frac{1}{512} In3,oddI_{n\geq 3,\text{odd}} 11 12n+11\frac{1}{2^{n+11}}
I1I_{1} 11 1211\frac{1}{2^{11}} In3,evenI_{n\geq 3,\text{even}} 22 12n+11\frac{1}{2^{n+11}}
I2I_{2} 22 1212\frac{1}{2^{12}} In3I_{n\geq 3} nn 12n+11\frac{1}{2^{n+11}}
Type c3c_{3} δ^3(K,n)\widehat{\delta}_{3}(K,n) Type c3c_{3} δ^3(K,n)\widehat{\delta}_{3}(K,n)
I0I_{0} 11 4311\frac{4}{3^{11}} In3,oddI_{n\geq 3,{\text{\rm odd}}} 11 23n+11\frac{2}{3^{n+11}}
I1I_{1} 11 4312\frac{4}{3^{12}} In3,evenI_{n\geq 3,{\text{\rm even}}} 22 23n+11\frac{2}{3^{n+11}}
I2I_{2} 22 4313\frac{4}{3^{13}} In3I_{n\geq 3} nn 23n+11\frac{2}{3^{n+11}}
Table 6. The δ^2(K,n)\widehat{\delta}_{2}(K,n) and δ^3(K,n)\widehat{\delta}_{3}(K,n)
Type c2c_{2} δ2(K,n)\delta_{2}^{\prime}(K,n) Type c2c_{2} δ2(K,n)\delta_{2}^{\prime}(K,n)
I0I_{0} 11 0 I0I_{0}^{*} 11 132\frac{1}{32}
I1I_{1} 11 0 I0I_{0}^{*} 22 132\frac{1}{32}
I2I_{2} 22 0 I0I_{0}^{*} 44 0
In3I_{n\geq 3} ε(n)\varepsilon(n) 0 In1I^{*}_{n\geq 1} 22 12n+6\frac{1}{2^{n+6}}
In3I_{n\geq 3} nn 0 In1I^{*}_{n\geq 1} 44 12n+6\frac{1}{2^{n+6}}
IIII 11 12\frac{1}{2} IIII^{*} 11 1256\frac{1}{256}
IIIIII 22 14\frac{1}{4} IIIIII^{*} 22 1128\frac{1}{128}
IVIV 11 116\frac{1}{16} IVIV^{*} 11 1128\frac{1}{128}
IVIV 33 116\frac{1}{16} IVIV^{*} 33 1128\frac{1}{128}
Type c3c_{3} δ3(K,n)\delta_{3}^{\prime}(K,n) Type c3c_{3} δ3(K,n)\delta_{3}^{\prime}(K,n)
I0I_{0} 11 23\frac{2}{3} I0I_{0}^{*} 11 837\frac{8}{3^{7}}
I1I_{1} 11 0 I0I_{0}^{*} 22 135\frac{1}{3^{5}}
I2I_{2} 22 0 I0I_{0}^{*} 44 137\frac{1}{3^{7}}
In3I_{n\geq 3} ε(n)\varepsilon(n) 0 In1I^{*}_{n\geq 1} 22 23n+6\frac{2}{3^{n+6}}
In3I_{n\geq 3} nn 0 In1I^{*}_{n\geq 1} 44 23n+6\frac{2}{3^{n+6}}
IIII 11 29\frac{2}{9} IIII^{*} 11 239\frac{2}{3^{9}}
IIIIII 22 227\frac{2}{27} IIIIII^{*} 22 1039\frac{10}{3^{9}}
IVIV 11 181\frac{1}{81} IVIV^{*} 11 739\frac{7}{3^{9}}
IVIV 33 181\frac{1}{81} IVIV^{*} 33 739\frac{7}{3^{9}}
Table 7. The δ2(K,n)\delta_{2}^{\prime}(K,n) and δ3(K,n)\delta_{3}^{\prime}(K,n)